202
FXUS62 KCAE 171739
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST, BUT CHANCES FOR A WETTING RAIN
(0.10" OR MORE) CONTINUE TO DECREASE. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY AND HOT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY.
- 2. A COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS, AND COOLER WEATHER TO
START THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND HOT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY.
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGS A SLIGHT
WIND SHIFT FROM YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE, THE RELATIVELY HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH SATURDAY LOOKING SLIGHTLY
WARMER. THE MONTHLY RECORD HIGH FOR BOTH CAE (1896) AND AGS
(1986) IS 96F. WE COULD MAKE A RUN AT THESE TEMPS TOMORROW AS A
STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPS TO BE
USHERED IN AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE BELOW 30% EACH AFTERNOON, LEADING TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR AND FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS, BUT COULD BE
CLOSE TOMORROW. SO, WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED FOR A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE SCFC HAS ISSUED A
STATEWIDE BURN BAN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE, SO EVEN IF WE DON'T
ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT, BE SURE TO AVOID ANY ACTIVITY
THAT COULD SPARK A FIRE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS, AND COOLER WEATHER TO
START THE NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED. RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS LOW AS THIS
AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY, BUT WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
NEED OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, BUT THE AMOUNT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THE
CHANCES FOR GREATER THAN 0.10" CONTINUES TO DROP. SO,
UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS NO REAL HELP FOR THE WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO BELOW NORMAL (YES, YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY) TO BEGIN THE
WORKWEEK. HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY DRY LEADING TO
CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPS THEN GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. ANY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AROUND 5-7KFT MSL WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY, GENERALLY OUT OF THE
W/NW AROUND 6-10 KTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THEN
RETURN OVERNIGHT. A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD PROHIBIT
FOG/STRATUS CONCERNS, AND SLY WINDS RETURN LATE SATURDAY
MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO BRIEF RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY BUT
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...EC
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