435
FXUS62 KCAE 180030
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
830 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED MENTIONED OF TODAY VERBIAGE FROM KEY MESSAGE 1.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY AND HOT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY.
- 2. A COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS, AND COOLER WEATHER TO
START THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND HOT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER DRY AND HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE MONTHLY RECORD HIGH FOR
BOTH CAE (1896) AND AGS (1986) IS 96 DEGREES AND WE COULD MAKE A
RUN AT THESE VALUES TOMORROW AS A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BE OVERHEAD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST,
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BE USHERED IN AS WELL. IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAT, RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW 30%,
LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR THE NEED FOR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ON SATURDAY AS WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT A
BURN BAN IS EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA,
THEREFORE ANY ACTIVITY THAT COULD SPARK A FIRE SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED REGARDLESS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS, AND COOLER WEATHER TO
START THE NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED. RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS LOW AS THIS
AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY, BUT WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
NEED OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, BUT THE AMOUNT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THE
CHANCES FOR GREATER THAN 0.10" CONTINUES TO DROP. SO,
UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS NO REAL HELP FOR THE WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO BELOW NORMAL (YES, YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY) TO BEGIN THE
WORKWEEK. HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY DRY LEADING TO
CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPS THEN GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE TERMINALS WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. WINDS INCREASE LATE MORNING SATURDAY, OUT
OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS. A FEW
CUMULUS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT GENERALLY
AROUND 6KFT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO BRIEF RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY BUT
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...96
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