587
FXUS62 KCAE 181749
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
149 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY CONTINUE TO DECREASE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY AND HOT WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON.
- 2. A COLD FRONT BRINGS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS,
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AND COOLER WEATHER TO START
THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND HOT WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY.
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT HAVE AIDED IN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THESE FACTORS ARE LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPS
HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING REMAINING, THERE IS STILL A
DECENT CHANCE THAT THE RECORD AT AGS (92F FROM 1896) IS TIED OR
BROKEN TODAY. REACHING THE RECORD AT CAE (96F ALSO FROM 1896)
DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY, HOWEVER. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
REALLY DRY AIR (GENERALLY 25-35% RH) IS ELEVATING THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SOMEWHAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WE MAY SEEM
SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 15-20 MPH, WE AREN'T EXPECTING MANY, IF
ANY, GUSTS HIGHER THAN THAT, KEEPING BELOW CRITERIA FOR ANY FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS. KEEP IN MIND, THOUGH, THAT A BURN BAN FROM
SCFC REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THUS, IT REMAINS
IMPORTANT TO AVOID ACTIVITIES THAT COULD SPARK A FIRE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT BRINGS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS, INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AND COOLER WEATHER TO
START THE NEXT WEEK.
SOME CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE IS STILL
LOOKING MODEST AT BEST ALONG THE FRONT AS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
ONLY REACH THE 1.2"-1.3" MARK. THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISMS WITH
THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE THROUGH THE AREA PRIOR TO THE PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING PERIOD. THEREFORE, CHANCES FOR AN SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DROP, BUT THERE REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY
(~20%) FOR THE AREA TO SEE A SHOWER OR TWO AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE A SHOWER IS
IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO MORE WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY, GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. RH VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO FALL RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST RH VALUES, ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LINE
UP. NONETHELESS, TOMORROW IS ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AND WILL ASSESS THE NEED FOR A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. COOLER TEMPS MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK BEFORE A WARMING TREND
RETURNS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
FEW-SCT FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CIRRUS
ABOVE. NO CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH BASES ABOVE 5KFT MSL.
CIRRUS THEN PERSISTS OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWER CLOUDS MOVING IN
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FRONT. DRY AIR PRECLUDES ANY VSBY
CONCERNS. SFC WIND INTO THIS EVENING GENERALLY SLY/SWLY AT 5-10
KTS, THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. GUSTS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BUT WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS
WILL START OUT FROM THE SW BUT INCREASE AROUND 14-15Z OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SPEEDS SHOULD BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20-25 KTS INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO BRIEF RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY
(LOW CONFIDENCE) BUT HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT VFR.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...EC
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