387
FXUS62 KCAE 190008
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
808 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES TO REMOVE MENTION OF SATURDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A COLD FRONT BRINGS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS,
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AND COOLER WEATHER TO START
THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT BRINGS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS, INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AND COOLER WEATHER TO
START THE NEXT WEEK.
SOME CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE IS STILL
LOOKING MODEST AT BEST ALONG THE FRONT AS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
ONLY REACH THE 1.2"-1.3" MARK. THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISMS WITH
THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE THROUGH THE AREA PRIOR TO THE PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING PERIOD. THEREFORE, CHANCES FOR AN SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DROP, BUT THERE REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY
(~20%) FOR THE AREA TO SEE A SHOWER OR TWO AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE A SHOWER IS
IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO MORE WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY, GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. RH VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO FALL RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST RH VALUES, ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LINE
UP. NONETHELESS, TOMORROW IS ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AND WILL ASSESS THE NEED FOR A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. COOLER TEMPS MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK BEFORE A WARMING TREND
RETURNS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH WINDS DECREASING
FROM EARLIER TODAY, GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST AND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WINDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO EVEN IF ANY SHOWERS
ARE OBSERVED, RESTRICTIONS REMAIN UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...96
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