505
FXUS62 KCAE 190537
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
137 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES TO REMOVE MENTION OF SATURDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A COLD FRONT BRINGS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS,
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AND COOLER WEATHER TO START
THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT BRINGS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS, INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AND COOLER WEATHER TO
START THE NEXT WEEK.
OUR WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING CURRENTLY, MOVING
INTO THE UPSTATE AS OF THIS WRITING. UNFORTUNATELY, MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT BUT AS WE HAVE
NOTED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THIS IS NOT A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE FRONT SHOULD APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH
BETWEEN 9A AND 2P TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, GUSTY WINDS OF 20 MPH
OR MORE ARE EXPECTED BUT SHOULD ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR TWO. MUCH
COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS WE GET INTO THIS WEEK
AS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE AREA. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK, TEMPS WILL AGAIN PUSH ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
MID 80S. WE MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK THIS WEEK
DESPITE WEAK WINDS OVERALL. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL
VALUES EACH DAY. SC FORESTRY HAS IMPLEMENTED A BURN BAN UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE SO PLEASE AVOID ANY BURNING ACTIVITIES! THERE
REMAINS A SIGNAL FOR A WETTER PATTERN BEGINNING AT THE VERY END
OF THIS PERIOD AND TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF MAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE FRONT.
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNRISE. THUS IT LOOKS AS IF MOST TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRY THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN IMPACTS WITH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE A PERIOD WITH SOME BROKEN LOW
END VFR CLOUDS, THEN CONDITIONS RETURN TO MORE SCATTERED BY
18Z. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL INCREASE AND TURN MORE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE
MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS, AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON, THEN
GUSTS DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z WITH WINDS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 5-9
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...CAL
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