062
FXUS62 KCAE 261807
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
207 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
FOR THIS COMING WEEK. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
- 2. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN SC THIS AFTERNOON
AND MAY SPARK ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT AND ONLY
WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IT WILL BE UNLIKELY THAT WE SEE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY
MUSTER A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN OR SEVERE WEATHER. CAMS HAVE
BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONLY ISOLATED OR AT MOST WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION. ANY RAIN SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWERS AND T-STORMS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFTS THIS WEEK AS RIDGING IS REPLACED BY
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL FIRST MID-WEEK, THEN NEXT WEEKEND. NAEFS
IVT OVER THE REGION RISES TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY
INDICATING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SUPPORT FOR
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOWER END
OF QPF PROBABILITIES FROM THE NBM HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY WITH THE
25TH PERCENTILE UP TO 0.2 INCHES, HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A
LARGE SPREAD IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWING THE UNCERTAINTY. THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM ALSO IS SKEWED TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF QPF
WITH TOTALS THROUGH MID-WEEK NEARLY TWICE AS MUCH AS THE MEDIAN.
ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE WIND SHEAR MAY HELP SOME LOW END STORM
ORGANIZATION, AND THESE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED IN THE
VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 2.5-3KFT ARE BEING NOTED
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ISOLATED AND BASES
RISE TO AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, EVENTUALLY
BECOMING . NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO ABOUT 10 KTS CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED GUST HERE AND
THERE AROUND 15-20 KTS CAN ALSO BE ANTICIPATED, BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED ENOUGH TO REMAIN OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTHEAST
WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BUT REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT THE TERMINALS. SOME GUIDANCE,
NAMELY THE HRRR, SHOWS ANOTHER STRATUS DECK MOVING INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER, IT REMAINS THE
ONLY ONE BRINGING THE STRATUS THIS FAR INLAND. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT LOW
CIGS OUT OF THE TAFS WITH THE ISSUANCE, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THESE TRENDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE, MAINLY TUESDAY AND INTO THE MID WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...29
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