883
FXUS62 KCAE 270009
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
809 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
FOR THIS COMING WEEK. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
- 2. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AND SPARKING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IS PUSHING
THROUGH THE CSRA AS OF 8PM. THE LOSS OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY
HAS RESULTED IN DIMINISHED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER DEWPOINTS
ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 50S AND FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWERS AND T-STORMS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFTS THIS WEEK AS RIDGING IS REPLACED BY
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL FIRST MID-WEEK, THEN NEXT WEEKEND. NAEFS
IVT OVER THE REGION RISES TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY
INDICATING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SUPPORT FOR
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOWER END
OF QPF PROBABILITIES FROM THE NBM HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY WITH THE
25TH PERCENTILE UP TO 0.2 INCHES, HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A
LARGE SPREAD IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWING THE UNCERTAINTY. THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM ALSO IS SKEWED TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF QPF
WITH TOTALS THROUGH MID-WEEK NEARLY TWICE AS MUCH AS THE MEDIAN.
ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE WIND SHEAR MAY HELP SOME LOW END STORM
ORGANIZATION, AND THESE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED IN THE
VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXIST CURRENTLY BUT THE FORECAST PERIOD BECOMES A
BIT MORE TRICKY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
A BACKDOOR FRONT OF SORTS HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA AND IS
USHERING IN DRY SURFACE AIR AS I TYPE THIS. SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS
WERE NOTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT FOLLOW THIS FEATURE BUT DIDN'T
REALLY MATERIALIZE AT CAE/CUB. WHAT IS MORE INTERESTING IS HOW
POORLY POST GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THE STRATUS ASSOCIATED DEEPER
INTO THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS NC AND VIRGINIA. THIS STRATUS IS
RAPIDLY EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH ONLY THE HRRR REALLY
INITIALIZING ITS EXTENT WELL. THE HRRR ALSO IS SHOWING THIS
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME &
YIELDING MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL OF OUR TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT.
EXPECTING THIS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z,
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 07Z-09Z AT THE SITES. THIS IS NOT
SOMETHING SHOWN IN ALL GUIDANCE; HOWEVER, THE HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT AND IS REFLECTING CURRENT OBSERVATIONS THE BEST.
THEREFORE, UTILIZING THIS FOR THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. STRATUS IS
LIKELY TO BREAK SOMETIME LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 7 AND 12
KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE, MAINLY TUESDAY AND INTO THE MID WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23/CJR
AVIATION...PL
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