807
FXUS62 KCAE 270708
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
308 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
FOR THIS COMING WEEK. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE
AREA TODAY.
- 2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST FLOW HAS USHERED IN SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN STRATUS, AND ALSO DRIER SURFACE AIR WITH
DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO FALL INTO THE 40S. GENERALLY EXPECTING THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. PWAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP AS
WELL, ENDING UP BELOW 0.5" BY THIS AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP EXPECTED
TODAY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 70S. THE SCFC BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH DAYTIME RH
VALUES LIKELY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S, AND NORTHEAST WINDS MAY
BE BREEZY AT TIMES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND.
PWATS INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY TO ABOVE 1", WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN PLACE. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MAY FIRE OFF A FEW MORNING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT, THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW AND
THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFTS AND RIDGING OVERHEAD BEGINS
TO FLATTEN OUT. MODERATE WIND SHEAR COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END STORM ORGANIZATION,
WITH AN OVERALL DECENT CHANCE OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE THIRD AND ONE HALF INCH ARE
LOOKING MORE LIKELY, WITH THE NAEFS IVT REMAINING AROUND THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH PERIODICALLY INTO THIS WEEKEND, CONTINUING AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE NEXT BIG SLUG OF MOISTURE DOESN'T
ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY, SO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL THEN WILL LIKELY BE
MEAGER.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE SPREADING INTO THE TAF SITES AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AS LAMP/NBM GUIDANCE
ATTEMPTS TO PLAY CATCH UP WITH THE STRATUS DECK THAT CURRENTLY
IS PUSHING INTO THE FA WITH MVFR CIGS ALREADY SEEN AT
CAE/CUB/OGB/AIK. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10
KTS WITH SPOTTY GUSTS TO 15-18 KTS NOTED. THESE RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS
IN THE COMING HOURS AND SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA BY 08-09Z, AS INDICATED IN THE LATEST HRRR WHICH CONTINUES
TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE OF THIS DECK (THOUGH EVEN IT IS A BIT
UNDERDONE). THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS
REMAINING. SKIES THEN ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH PASSING CIRRUS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND
6-10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT DO BECOME A BIT LIGHTER
AND EASTERLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS/RESTRICTIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY
TOWARD THE CSRA. THIS COMES AHEAD OF A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT
MOVES IN DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS THEN POSSIBLE INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...DH
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