602
FXUS62 KCAE 271040
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
640 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE
AREA TODAY.
- 2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST FLOW HAS USHERED IN SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN STRATUS, AND ALSO DRIER SURFACE AIR WITH
DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO FALL INTO THE 40S. GENERALLY EXPECTING THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. PWAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP AS
WELL, ENDING UP BELOW 0.5" BY THIS AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP EXPECTED
TODAY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 70S. THE SCFC BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH DAYTIME RH
VALUES LIKELY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S, AND NORTHEAST WINDS MAY
BE BREEZY AT TIMES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND.
PWATS INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY TO ABOVE 1", WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN PLACE. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MAY FIRE OFF A FEW MORNING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT, THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW AND
THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFTS AND RIDGING OVERHEAD BEGINS
TO FLATTEN OUT. MODERATE WIND SHEAR COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END STORM ORGANIZATION,
WITH AN OVERALL DECENT CHANCE OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE THIRD AND ONE HALF INCH ARE
LOOKING MORE LIKELY, WITH THE NAEFS IVT REMAINING AROUND THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH PERIODICALLY INTO THIS WEEKEND, CONTINUING AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE NEXT BIG SLUG OF MOISTURE DOESN'T
ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY, SO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL THEN WILL LIKELY BE
MEAGER.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE GIVING
WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS THE
DECK CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD. WINDS ALSO REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6-10 KTS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 15-17Z BEFORE STRATUS MIXES OUT, GIVING WAY TO
SCT TO BKN VFR CUMULUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES THEN ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH PASSING
CIRRUS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT DO BECOME A BIT LIGHTER AND EASTERLY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. TONIGHT, WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AHEAD OF A LINE OF SHOWERS, WHERE THERE IS AT LEAST A
MINOR INDICATION MORE STRATUS COULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
CSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD INTO THE TAF AT THE
MOMENT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE IN TUESDAY DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON,
WHERE PATCHY RESTRICTIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS THEN ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A
MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...DH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page