860
FXUS62 KCAE 271720
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
120 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEK REMAIN RELATIVELY
STEADY HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND HAS INCREASED.
UPDATE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK.
- 2. RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THIS WEEKEND ARE INCREASING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND UPWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT, THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ON TUESDAY SHOULD SHOULD BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN, MODERATE WIND SHEAR COUPLED WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END STORM
ORGANIZATION, WITH AN OVERALL DECENT CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW, IT
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER
OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY, BUT RECENT
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER WITH QPF TOTALS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THIS WEEKEND ARE INCREASING
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT BROAD TROUGHING IS FAVORED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE NAEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES APPROACHING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY WITH IVT NEAR THE 97TH PERCENTILE.
THIS SUPPORTS A HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE TIME PERIOD, THERE IS POTENTIAL TO SEE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT. ALTHOUGH WE ARE TOO FAR OUT
TO GET AN ACCURATE DETERMINATION OF RAIN AMOUNTS, WE SHOULD SEE
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AMOUNTS INCREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT LOW CHANCES
FOR RESTRICTIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS DECK FROM THIS MORNING
HAS PRETTY MUCH MIXED OUT AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVER THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. EASTERLY WINDS FROM 5-10 KTS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AN APPROACHING FRONT OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS BRINGS ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
REGION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS AFTER ABOUT
12Z, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
BEFORE AFFECTING THE TERMINALS. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT
OF THE TAF FOR NOW, BUT WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NEEDED IN
FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES. WINDS TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON
TUESDAY, BUT REMAIN VARIABLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND/CJR
AVIATION...29
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