253
FXUS62 KCAE 280556
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
156 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 TIMING UPDATED BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT IS QUIET UNDER
CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME LOW CLOUDS SNEAKING INTO THE
SOUTHERN CSRA. ATTENTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK TURNS TO STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHWESTERN FA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CONVECTION
WILL BE DECAYING AND SHOULD ONLY CONSIST OF A FEW SHOWERS BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE MIDLANDS AFTER DAYBREAK. HAVING SAID THAT,
THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
LATER THIS MORNING, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF I-20.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL TO OUR
WEST LATER TODAY, WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE ARRIVING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SO OPTED TO
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THIS SECOND ROUND OF
ACTIVITY. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS PARTS OF THE
FA COULD SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN, MODERATE WIND SHEAR
COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-END STORM ORGANIZATION, THOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING CONVECTION AND WHETHER WE CAN CLEAR
OUT AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. THE DAY
3 SPC OUTLOOK HAS A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER JUST
TO OUR NORTH SO THE BEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT BROAD TROUGHING IS FAVORED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE NAEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES APPROACHING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY WITH IVT NEAR THE 97TH PERCENTILE.
THIS SUPPORTS A HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE TIME PERIOD, THERE IS POTENTIAL TO SEE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT. ALTHOUGH WE ARE TOO FAR OUT
TO GET AN ACCURATE DETERMINATION OF RAIN AMOUNTS, WE SHOULD SEE
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AMOUNTS INCREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE, BUT LOW CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS THIS
MORNING AS DECAYING AREA OF SHOWERS ENTERS THE FA.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT AN AREA OF STRATUS CAN BE SEEN
PUSHING INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST, ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
WINDS ARE NOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WELL, BUT THE CAE VAD
PROFILE DOES SHOW AROUND 30 KTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 1000
FT. LLWS IS NOT IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT AS SURFACE WINDS ARE
ELEVATED ENOUGH, BUT THIS IS WORTH MENTIONING. IN TERMS OF
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT, GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY "WISHY-
WASHY" WHERE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY
AFTER 08-11Z AS PATCHES OF STRATUS PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE
COAST AND AGAIN BETWEEN 14-17Z AS DECAYING SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE
AREA. OVERALL, STRATUS PUSHING INLAND COULD CAUSE A MIX OF VFR
AND OF MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE A COUPLE SHOWERS COULD NEAR THE TAF
SITES LATER IN THE MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER THIS, SCT
TO BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN WITH
RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
MORE RAIN CHANCES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...DH
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