023
FXUS62 KCAE 291755
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
155 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. 1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
- 2. CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN MODERATE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
MORNING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING MCV HAS
SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SHIFTING OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
TRANSITIONING TO CUMULUS AS TEMPERATURES ARE RISING THROUGH THE
70S WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
SHOWING ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWING A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS FROM
EARLIER RAIN AND CLOUDS BUT WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF POTENTIAL
SUNSHINE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY BE REALIZED TO SUPPORT THE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG STORM OR
TWO. SEVERE CONVECTION, WHILE POSSIBLE, DOES NOT SEEM AS LIKELY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND THERE COULD BE SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH BUT GIVEN THE TIMING BEING OVERNIGHT WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY, AGAIN DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT
WITH IT. GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT ANOTHER CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST
STATES WHICH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE CSRA SEEMS TO BE MORE FAVORED THAN
FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND HIGHEST POPS RESIDE GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MORE
ELEVATED IN NATURE BUT THERE WILL BE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROVIDING
UPPER SUPPORT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. ANY RAINFALL AT THIS POINT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN OUR DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN MODERATE RAINFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
CHANCES OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SWINGING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF
COAST WHICH THEN LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
SATURDAY. WHILE IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST
TOTALS LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA, THERE SHOULD BE
REASONABLE CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WITH NAEFS IVT ABOVE
THE 97TH PERCENTILE. THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS ARE MORE
FAVORED FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL GIVEN A GRADIENT IN PWATS WITH
HIGHER VALUES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT LOOKS LIKE AN OVERRUNNING EVENT
WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST. LREF PROBABILITIES FOR
24HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES ARE IN THE 50-75
PERCENT RANGE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH ARE NEAR 50 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. 48HR QPF FROM THE NBM IS A BIT MORE BULLISH
WITH PRECIPITATION WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE SHOWING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA RECEIVING AT LEAST ONE INCH OF RAINFALL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED WITH
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES EARLY THURSDAY.
LINGERING LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO BURN OFF THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TYPICAL STRATO-CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK APPROACHING
FRONT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN SC, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANY TERMINAL IMPACTS BEYOND A VCSH AT
CAE AND CUB. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AFTER 06Z FROM A DECAYING
STORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
ARE MORE LIKELY FOR OGB, AIK AND THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS SO
INCLUDED A TEMPO THERE AND A PROB30 FOR THE COLUMBIA AREA
TERMINALS. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
SHOWERS-STORMS BUT GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. SOME
LINGERING STRATUS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWING THESE SHOWERS- STORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MORE RAIN CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGHOUT SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...42
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