651
FXUS62 KCAE 300603
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
203 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING WHILE DECREASING THEM THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
- 2. CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN MODERATE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
RADAR IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH GEORGIA. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON.
HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA, FAVORING LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-20. INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BASED ON THIS
GUIDANCE, POPS WERE INCREASED THIS MORNING AND DROPPED IN THE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN MODERATE RAINFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
CHANCES OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SWINGING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF
COAST WHICH THEN LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
SATURDAY. WHILE IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST
TOTALS LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA, THERE SHOULD BE
REASONABLE CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WITH NAEFS IVT ABOVE
THE 97TH PERCENTILE. THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS ARE MORE
FAVORED FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL GIVEN A GRADIENT IN PWATS WITH
HIGHER VALUES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT LOOKS LIKE AN OVERRUNNING EVENT
WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST. LREF PROBABILITIES FOR
24HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES ARE IN THE 50-75
PERCENT RANGE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH ARE NEAR 50 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. 48HR QPF FROM THE NBM IS A BIT MORE BULLISH
WITH PRECIPITATION WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE SHOWING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA RECEIVING AT LEAST ONE INCH OF RAINFALL.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS MORNING AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS MOVE IN.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS CIRRUS AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAM INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN AREA OF WEAK STORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN AL AND NORTH CENTRAL GA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 3-5
KTS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A BIT MORE VARIABLE AS A FRONT
CURRENTLY IN THE UPSTATE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS PRECLUDES THE MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAF
BUT THE CAE VAD PROFILE DOES INDICATE AROUND 30 KTS OF WESTERLY
FLOW NEAR 1500-2000 FT WORTH MENTIONING. CONTINUING INTO THE
MORNING, GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT THAT AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE IMPINGES ON THE FA WITH THE FRONT WORKING SOUTHWARD,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WORK IN FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN 08-11Z, IMPACTING THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS FIRST. LATEST
HRRR RUNS HAVE SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION A BIT AND THE 00Z HREF
MEAN SOLUTION HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO AGS/DNL/AIK STARTING
AROUND 08-09Z, AND CAE/CUB/OGB AROUND 09-11Z. WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN FA), ADDED
MENTION OF TSRA IN THE TAF EXCEPT FOR CAE/CUB WHERE A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY EXITS. AS THIS ACTIVITY PUSHES THROUGH, MVFR CEILING
AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS POSSIBLE LOW
END THUNDERSTORM GUSTS NEAR 15-25 KTS. SHOWERS AND ANY STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER 14-16Z, BUT MVFR STRATUS MAY REMAIN
IN PLACE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE MIXING OUT WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE CWA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 5-8 KTS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST, BUT COULD BE A BIT SQUIRRELY AT
TIMES. A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS THEN EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECAYING TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE COMES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS THEN ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...DH
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