664
FXUS62 KCAE 301346
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
946 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING WHILE DECREASING THEM THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
- 2. CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN MODERATE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH OF RAIN. A SHORTWAVE THAT WAS DRIVING THIS CONVECTION
IS CROSSING THE REGION NOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SHOULD KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN MODERATE RAINFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
CHANCES OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SWINGING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF
COAST WHICH THEN LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
SATURDAY. WHILE IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST
TOTALS LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA, THERE SHOULD BE
REASONABLE CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WITH NAEFS IVT ABOVE
THE 97TH PERCENTILE. THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS ARE MORE
FAVORED FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL GIVEN A GRADIENT IN PWATS WITH
HIGHER VALUES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT LOOKS LIKE AN OVERRUNNING EVENT
WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST. LREF PROBABILITIES FOR
24HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES ARE IN THE 50-75
PERCENT RANGE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH ARE NEAR 50 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. 48HR QPF FROM THE NBM IS A BIT MORE BULLISH
WITH PRECIPITATION WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE SHOWING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA RECEIVING AT LEAST ONE INCH OF RAINFALL.
AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MIX OF RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO FRIDAY.
ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS OR NOTABLE HEAVY RAIN HAS PUSHED
EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS OF 14Z. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE
ALONG WITH SOME LOWER MVFR OR IFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. CIGS LIFT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR ALL TAF SITES
ALONG WITH SOME NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
YIELD SOME STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY MVFR BUT IFR
FOR A PERIOD IS POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE COMES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS THEN ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/23
AVIATION...42
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