788
FXUS62 KCAE 010636
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
236 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE #1 TO REFLECT RECENT CHANGES IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. AVIATION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SIGNIFICANT AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- 2. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SIGNIFICANT AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
RADAR TONIGHT SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TODAY PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN
FOR THE EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ALONG AND SOUTH AND EAST OF I-20.
THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IN OVER A MONTH STARTING LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GULF
COAST STATES BY THIS EVENING. NAEFS IVT REACHES THE 97TH
PERCENTILE WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OF PWATS SHOW A
STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7
INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS TO 1.2 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AT 12Z SATURDAY, WHICH LIKELY WOULD FAVOR HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS WITH LOWER
VALUES NORTH. THIS LOOKS TO BE A STRONG OVERRUNNING EVENT WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVING OFF THE
CAROLINAS COAST WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE
EVENTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS AND AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIPITATION WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DICTATED BY WHEN THE PHASING OCCURS AND AND IF
THERE IS ANY AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, OVERALL
RAINFALL TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH LREF PROBABILITY
OF 1 INCH OF RAIN INCREASING OVER THE PAST 3 MODEL RUNS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND LOWER CSRA. NBM
ALSO CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE 50TH
PERCENTILE VALUES NOW WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
HOWEVER, THE NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE RANGE IN VALUES WITH
THE 25TH PERCENTILE RANGING FROM AROUND 0.4 INCHES NORTH TO 1.25
INCHES SOUTH AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5
INCHES NORTH TO 2.4 INCHES SOUTH. REGARDLESS, THIS SHOULD BE THE
IDEAL WAY TO HELP IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH A LONG
DURATION SOAKING STRATIFORM RAINFALL EVENT RATHER THAN STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOTS OF RUNOFF FROM DRY HARD SURFACE
CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
EXTENSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AS NAEFS 1000MB
AND 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
HIGHS EXPECTED TO RISE BACK INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND MID TO
UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OF THE PERIOD, WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING NOTED ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
TIME, BUT ALL CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. EXPECT CLOUD COVER
TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TOWARDS DAYBREAK, MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE AUGUSTA AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT WILL LEAVE IT
OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL.
GENERALLY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 20Z OR SO, WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 20Z
BEFORE BECOMING MORE VARIABLE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY
STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WIDESPREAD RAIN
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS THEN ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...29
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