929
FXUS62 KCAE 011716
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
116 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SIGNIFICANT AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- 2. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SIGNIFICANT AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED
LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY HAS BEEN A
PAIN POINT IN THE FORECAST SO FAR TODAY. IT HAS OSCILLATED
NORTHWARD A BIT THIS MORNING, WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS
DEVELOP ATOP IT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING TO THE
EAST BUT WITH MOIST LOW-LEVELS HANGING AROUND AND INCREASING
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT APPROACH THROUGH THIS EVENING, IT
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME MORE SCATTERED, LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS LIKELY WON'T MOVE
MUCH AND WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S OR LOW 60S.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A BENEFICIAL SHOT OF LONGER DURATION,
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL APPROACHING AND OVERSPREADING THE
REGION TONIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. THE SETUP FOR
THIS IS ROBUST, WITH A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF THE WINTER
SETTING UP TO FORCE THIS SOAKING RAINFALL. A TROUGH AXIS IS
CURRENTLY DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, FORECAST TO BEGIN
TILTING MORE AS IT DIGS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS, A STRONG AND ANTI-CYCLONICALLY CURVE UPPER JET STREAK
IS TAKING SHAPE TO OUR NORTH, FORECAST TO TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CENTER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
US, FOSTERING ROBUST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. THE BEST LIFT SHOULD
BEGIN APPROACHING THIS EVENING, WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
DEVELOPING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. PWS THROUGH THE EVENT ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 1" IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO
NEAR 1.4" IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. RAIN SHOULD BE STEADY THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY, WITH TOTALS RANGING GENERALLY FROM 0.5" TO
1.25", WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 1.5-1.75" POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE ECMWF EFI IS ADDING A GOOD BIT
OF CONFIDENCE TO THIS FORECAST, SHOWING EFI VALUES AROUND 0.8 &
NON-ZERO SHIFT OF TAILS VALUES AS WELL. THIS WOULD OUTPUT
SOMETHING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE
EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, THIS IS
WELCOME RAINFALL AND SHOULD BE FALLING AT A PERFECT PACE AS
WELL. THE GROUND IS SO DRY THAT REALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN MOSTLY RUNOFF. THIS WON'T END THE DROUGHT BY ANY
MEANS BUT IT WILL HELP KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING WORSE FOR THE
TIME BEING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A PRETTY TYPICAL, ALBEIT INITIALLY COOL, PATTERN FOR SPRING IS
FORECAST TO SETUP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
DRY AND COOL AIR SETTLING INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE 70S BOTH DAYS, YIELDING SOME OF THE BETTER WEATHER OF THE
SPRING SO FAR. THEREAFTER, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.
THE JET STREAM LOOKS TO SITUATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
US FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO, CONTINUING TO OFFER UP CHANCES AT
RAIN AND STORMS. OUR NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH A WARM UP & INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LINGERING MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH
PERSISTENT RAIN AND LOWERING IFR CIGS ARRIVING THIS EVENING.
FOLLOWING A FRONT EARLY FRIDAY, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR
CIGS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TAF
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND PERIODIC THROUGH 22Z.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING WITH SLOWLY
DESCENDING CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, BECOMING IFR BY EARLY
SATURDAY. RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR ONLY MODEST
VSBY IMPACTS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 12-15
KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. RAIN AND LOW CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS START LATE
SATURDAY EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADS
THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS THEN ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND INTO
THE EARLY WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...42
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