279
FXUS62 KCAE 012333
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
733 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE 1 PART OF DISCUSSION FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND EXPECTED TIMING OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. AVIATION
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SIGNIFICANT AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
- 2. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SIGNIFICANT AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO FRONTS, WITH ONE STATIONARY
FRONT SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA, AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. BETWEEN THESE BOUNDARIES,
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. STILL EXPECTED TO SEE A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CSRA AND SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT AND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
BE MOVING EASTWARD. MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE SLOWLY
PUSHING SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO SATURDAY. ALOFT, A
DEEPENING TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL HELP TO
BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS THE GULF LOW STRENGTHENS ALONG THE
FRONT. PWAT VALUES EARLY THIS EVENING RANGE FROM JUST BELOW AN
INCH OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE PEE DEE, TO AROUND 1.25
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. WITH THE MOISTURE
INCREASING, PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN SEVERAL AREAS AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN. THIS SHOULD SET UP A RATHER GOOD OVER-
RUNNING RAINFALL EVENT STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING GENERALLY
FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES
STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA, THIS IS GOING TO BE SOME WELCOME RAINFALL AND SHOULD BE
FALLING AT A PERFECT RAINFALL RATE AS WELL TO HELP IT SOAK IN MORE
INSTEAD OF RESULTING IN TOTAL RUNOFF. THIS WON'T END THE DROUGHT BY
ANY MEANS BUT IT WILL HELP KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING WORSE FOR THE
TIME BEING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A PRETTY TYPICAL, ALBEIT INITIALLY COOL, PATTERN FOR SPRING IS
FORECAST TO SETUP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
DRY AND COOL AIR SETTLING INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE 70S BOTH DAYS, YIELDING SOME OF THE BETTER WEATHER OF THE
SPRING SO FAR. THEREAFTER, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.
THE JET STREAM LOOKS TO SITUATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
US FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO, CONTINUING TO OFFER UP CHANCES AT
RAIN AND STORMS. OUR NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH A WARM UP & INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS WIDESPREAD
RAIN OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
FROM MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
CURRENTLY OVER AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, BUT ARE MAINLY
CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVES LATE
TONIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 04-06Z, SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. WITH THIS, CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR BY
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. WHILE RAINFALL SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR ONLY MODEST VISIBILITY
IMPACTS, BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE SATURDAY AS
LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH OCCASIONAL LOW
END GUSTS OF 12-15 KNOTS POSSIBLE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AND
CEILINGS BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER 20-22Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADS
THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS THEN ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND INTO
THE EARLY WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAL
AVIATION...ND
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