669
FXUS62 KCAE 020620
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
220 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. AVIATION
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.
- 2. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
AS PWAT VALUES RISE TO 1-1.5 INCHES WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AS A DEEPENING TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH MID-DAY WHEN
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STEADY, MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTALS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM BUT INSTABILITY, EVEN ELEVATED, IS AT A MINIMUM.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF NOTABLE WEATHER WILL BE MID-WEEK WHEN A TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT OVER THE EASTERN US. THE ASSOCIATED, TRAILING COLD
FRONT MAY SAG INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE
NAEFS SHOWS IVT NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY AND ABOVE
NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. HOWEVER AS THE STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFT
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TROUGH, WE MAY SEE THE CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT WEAKEN WITH DRYER WESTERLY WINDS AT THE MID-LEVELS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS TYPICALLY LEADS TO MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA, SUGGESTING NBM POPS
COULD BE TOO HIGH FOR THE TIME PERIOD. DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO RETURN
BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AND HAS BEGUN FALLING AT THE AUGUSTA AREA TERMINALS. EXPECT THIS
RAINFALL TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
EXITING AROUND 20Z-22Z TODAY. VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
GRADUALLY DROP AS RAIN INTENSITY INCREASES, LIKELY REACHING IFR
CONDITIONS. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
OGB, WHERE IFR CIGS ARE BEING OBSERVED. THOSE LOWER CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA
TERMINALS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN, THE CEILINGS REMAIN IFR
INTO THE AFTERNOON, IMPROVING AS THE RAIN EXITS THE REGION.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST, SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEGINNING
AROUND 10Z-12Z. WINDS DECREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER CONDITIONS THEN ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY WEEK. A MIDWEEK SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE
FOR RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...29
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