810
FXUS62 KCAE 021035
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
635 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. AVIATION
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.
- 2. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
AS PWAT VALUES RISE TO 1-1.5 INCHES WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AS A DEEPENING TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH MID-DAY WHEN
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STEADY, MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTALS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM BUT INSTABILITY, EVEN ELEVATED, IS AT A MINIMUM.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF NOTABLE WEATHER WILL BE MID-WEEK WHEN A TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT OVER THE EASTERN US. THE ASSOCIATED, TRAILING COLD
FRONT MAY SAG INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE
NAEFS SHOWS IVT NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY AND ABOVE
NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. HOWEVER AS THE STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFT
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TROUGH, WE MAY SEE THE CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT WEAKEN WITH DRYER WESTERLY WINDS AT THE MID-LEVELS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS TYPICALLY LEADS TO MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA, SUGGESTING NBM POPS
COULD BE TOO HIGH FOR THE TIME PERIOD. DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO RETURN
BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PERIODIC MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
RETURNING TO VFR.
WIDESPREAD, MOSTLY LIGHT, RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, A FEW BREAKS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP IN THE
RADAR IMAGERY. EXPECT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z-22Z. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE RAIN ENDING
SLIGHTLY BEFORE THAT. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR
AND LOW-END VFR, WITH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR AT TIMES. THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL BEFORE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KTS, WITH A FEW
ISOLATED GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 20-22Z AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER CONDITIONS THEN ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY WEEK. A MIDWEEK SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE
FOR RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...29
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page