552
FXUS62 KCAE 021751
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
151 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STEADY RAIN ENDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAINFALL ENDING BY THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
- 2. WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY WEEK.
- 3. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAINFALL ENDING BY THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE BACK END OF THE MORE STEADY RAIN SHIELD
SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND THE COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL WE RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FROM THIS
EVENT WITH MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVING
BETWEEN 0.25" AND 0.75" WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FOCUSED IN THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND LOWER CSRA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS YET
TO SWING THROUGH AND COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS
INTO THIS EVENING BUT NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY WEEK
THE COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AT LEAST
REGARDING HIGH TEMPERATURES, EARLY THIS WEEK. WHILE A DRY AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INITIALLY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S MON/TUE
KEEPING HUMIDITY LOW, A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE SURFACE
HIGHS SHIFTS OFFSHORE WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE BACK NEAR NORMAL MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES AND WARMING FURTHER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. ZONAL 500MB FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD ARRIVE MID WEEK (WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY) AND BRING A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A
PHASED AND DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION WHICH IS
USUALLY CONDUCIVE TO STRONGER WINDS AND ENHANCING ANY SEVERE THREAT.
EC EFI SHOWING A SIGNAL IN THE CAPE-SHEAR PARAMETER. NAEFS ESAT
SHOWING IVT AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX WITH PWATS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE, SO MOISTURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
WITH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
TIMING WILL BE KEY OF COURSE WITH AN AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE MORE
FAVORABLE THAN SOMETHING OVERNIGHT, BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE
ANY CONFIDENCE IN TIMING YET. CSU ML HAS A PROBABILITY IN LINE WITH
A MARGINAL RISK AT THIS POINT, ALONG WITH SOME OF THE OTHER AI
SEVERE GUIDANCE. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO MID
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOME MORNING FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SHOULD MOVE
EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY MID-AFTERNOON (BETWEEN 19-20Z) WITH
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 00Z, EVENTUALLY CLEARING OVERNIGHT. SOME
FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
NO NOTABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT. CURRENTLY ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEAKED AS
CONFIDENCE CHANGES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER CONDITIONS THEN ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY WEEK. A MIDWEEK SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE
FOR RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...42
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