959
FXUS62 KCAE 022333
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
733 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN ENDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AVIATION UPDATED FOR
00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAINFALL ENDING THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
- 2. WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY WEEK.
- 3. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAINFALL ENDING THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SOLID CLOUD DECK IS RELEGATED TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS EVENING, AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING TO THE EAST AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OUT. HOWEVER, STRONG UPPER VORT IS
FORCING SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS, AND EVEN A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY, WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CSRA IN THE NEXT HOUR, THEN
CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO THE MIDLANDS LATER THIS EVENING. WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING (IF YOU COULD CALL IT HEATING FOR
MAY) AND DIMINISHING UPPER JET SUPPORT, THE CONVECTION SHOULD
LOSE STEAM WITH TIME, BUT NOT BEFORE GETTING SOME LOCATIONS WET
DURING EVENING ACTIVITIES, MAINLY SOUTH/WEST OF I-26. ALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD MINOR OUT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY WEEK
THE COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AT LEAST
REGARDING HIGH TEMPERATURES, EARLY THIS WEEK. WHILE A DRY AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INITIALLY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S MON/TUE
KEEPING HUMIDITY LOW, A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE SURFACE
HIGHS SHIFTS OFFSHORE WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE BACK NEAR NORMAL MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES AND WARMING FURTHER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. ZONAL 500MB FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD ARRIVE MID WEEK (WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY) AND BRING A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A
PHASED AND DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION WHICH IS
USUALLY CONDUCIVE TO STRONGER WINDS AND ENHANCING ANY SEVERE THREAT.
EC EFI SHOWING A SIGNAL IN THE CAPE-SHEAR PARAMETER. NAEFS ESAT
SHOWING IVT AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX WITH PWATS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE, SO MOISTURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
WITH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
TIMING WILL BE KEY OF COURSE WITH AN AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE MORE
FAVORABLE THAN SOMETHING OVERNIGHT, BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE
ANY CONFIDENCE IN TIMING YET. CSU ML HAS A PROBABILITY IN LINE WITH
A MARGINAL RISK AT THIS POINT, ALONG WITH SOME OF THE OTHER AI
SEVERE GUIDANCE. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO MID
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT
AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE
ANY RESTRICTIONS. ANY REMAINING CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 02Z,
WITH CIRRUS OVERNIGHT AND SKC RETURNING FOR SUNDAY. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VSBYS IN FOG EARLY
SUNDAY WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK WINDS, BUT THIS
SHOULD BE PATCHY AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE OGB/AGS/AIK
TERMINALS AND IS HANDLED BY TEMPO GROUPS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS
ON THE LOWER SIDE. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE VFR ACROSS THE BOARD
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
BY THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MIDWEEK SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FA/23
AVIATION...EC/42
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