689
FXUS62 KCAE 030638
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
238 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA. AVIATION UPDATED
FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. MODERATE RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER MID-WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MODERATE RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
MID-WEEK
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL WORK
EASTWARD MID-WEEK PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SOMETIME THURSDAY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE NAEFS IVT NOW FORECAST AT THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM. MEAN PWAT VALUES FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AROUND 2 INCHES (ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL). STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF A FRONT SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. WARM, MOIST
ADVECTION WILL WORK TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY. WE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
REMAINS IN QUESTION BUT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT THE GREATEST
THREAT MAY BE FURTHER EAST, CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHERE THE AIR
MASS WOULD HAVE MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE DAY BEFORE
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. NCAR ML/AI SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE
REMAINED SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT INDICATING A POTENTIAL THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER BUT HAVE HONED IN MORE CLOSELY ON THE AREA TO OUR
EAST AND TO THE NORTH IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHERE THE
DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONGER AS THE TROUGH LIFTS. THE ECMWF EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX VALUES FOR CAPE AND SHEAR RANGE FROM 0.6 TO 0.8
WITH HIGHEST VALUES TO THE EAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR AN
UNUSUAL EVENT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE
THURSDAY WITH DRIER AIR ENDING PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD, LEAVING CLEAR SKIES
BEHIND THEM. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW SOME FOG WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER. PERIODIC VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AT
THE TERMINALS, WITH VISIBILITY VARYING. AGS HAS ALREADY BEEN AS
LOWS AS A QUARTER MILE WHILE ALL THE OTHER TERMINALS ARE STILL
VFR AT THIS TIME. THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
ABOUT DAYBREAK OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN. ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS START OUT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM THROUGH ABOUT 14Z, BECOMING
NORTHEAST. THEN, THEY SHIFT WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON,
INCREASING TO 5-8 KTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
AFTER 00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MIDWEEK SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...29
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