830
FXUS62 KCAE 030951
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
551 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. MODERATE RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER MID-WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MODERATE RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
MID-WEEK
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL WORK
EASTWARD MID-WEEK PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SOMETIME THURSDAY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE NAEFS IVT NOW FORECAST AT THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM. MEAN PWAT VALUES FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AROUND 2 INCHES (ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL). STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF A FRONT SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. WARM, MOIST
ADVECTION WILL WORK TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY. WE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
REMAINS IN QUESTION BUT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT THE GREATEST
THREAT MAY BE FURTHER EAST, CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHERE THE AIR
MASS WOULD HAVE MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE DAY BEFORE
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. NCAR ML/AI SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE
REMAINED SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT INDICATING A POTENTIAL THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER BUT HAVE HONED IN MORE CLOSELY ON THE AREA TO OUR
EAST AND TO THE NORTH IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHERE THE
DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONGER AS THE TROUGH LIFTS. THE ECMWF EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX VALUES FOR CAPE AND SHEAR RANGE FROM 0.6 TO 0.8
WITH HIGHEST VALUES TO THE EAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR AN
UNUSUAL EVENT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE
THURSDAY WITH DRIER AIR ENDING PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VARYING RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS.
FOG HAS SPREAD OUT THIS MORNING, WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT DNL. VARYING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THIS FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z OR SO BEFORE
DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS
DEVELOP THIS MORNING, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER ABOUT 18Z. AFTER SUNSET WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MIDWEEK SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...29
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