527
FXUS62 KCAE 051042
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
642 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR MID-WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED MID
WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES PICK BACK UP LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED MID WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
AS WE DRAW NEARER TO THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM, THE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
REMAINS STEADY. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT, SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
EAST LATER IN THE DAY. PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE THEIR
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMA POINTING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
IN DEEPER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE
EVENT ARE MOST LIKELY TO FALL WITHIN THE ONE THIRD INCH TO 1
INCH RANGE BUT WE EXPECT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM POCKETS OF
DEEPER CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS MAINLY LIMITED TO URBAN OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS. A
TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT AND SOME MIXING DOWN OF THE ROBUST
LLJ, SHOULD BRING GUSTY CONDITIONS WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED.
THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ULTIMATELY LIMIT
CERTAINTY IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING MAY
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE QUESTION OF INSTABILITY
REMAINS, THE ECMWF EFI VALUES FOR CAPE-SHEAR CONTINUES TO RISE
SHOWING THAT THE THREAT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS. IF DESTABILIZATION OCCURS , A COUPLE STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD FORM IN THIS HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN IS IN THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND THE PEE DEE AT THIS POINT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES PICK BACK UP LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND
MODELS TEND TO FAVOR A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SWINGING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS. DRY AIR
OVER THE REGION FOR LATE WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
LIMIT POPS FOR A BIT BEFORE PWAT VALUES RISE BACK ABOVE AN INCH
BY LATE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO RAIN CHANCES
RAMPING BACK UP.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.
WINDS STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING TO 9-13 KT,
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING TO THE SURFACE. A FEW MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL NOT POSE AN
IMPACT TO AVIATION. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BUT
LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL MAINTAIN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 7-10 KT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALSO, EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM TO THE WEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MIDWEEK SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE
FOR RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING WEDNESDAY EVENING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...JAQ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page