661
FXUS62 KCAE 060657
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST TRENDING DRIER FOR FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES PICK BACK UP LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
OVERVIEW: A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY COINCIDING WITH STRONG UPPER SUPPORT AND
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
WITH A FLASH FLOODING THREAT LIMITED TO MAINLY URBAN AND FLOOD
PRONE AREAS. THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AS TWO
MAIN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH
ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING POTENTIALLY
FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES. FAIRLY BREEZY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.
RAINFALL: AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY, STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD
SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LINE MOVES INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 35-45KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT WILL PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY TRAINING
CELLS. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT SO THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING, HOWEVER URBAN AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE
AREAS WILL STILL BE AT RISK. MEAN QPF AMOUNTS FROM THE NBM RANGE
FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO THE WEST, POSSIBLY
DUE TO CAMS TRYING TO PROPAGATE THE DEEPEST CONVECTION INTO
SOUTHERN GA OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH
SOME PMM VALUES IN THE REFS AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN THE CSRA.
SEVERE THREAT: MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED,
FIRST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
SOMEWHAT MUTED BY THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF THE FIRST ROUND AND
THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY RE-DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SECOND
ROUND. POOR LAPSE RATES OVERNIGHT SHOULD HINDER MIXING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SURFACE, MAKING FLOODING THE GREATER THREAT
OVERNIGHT. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY
WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES
COULD ALLOW FOR A DOWNBURST OR HAIL THREAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK WITH MEAN REFS SBCAPE VALUES LESS THAN 500
J/KG. THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL THROUGH THE MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES PICK BACK UP LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND
WHILE MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON TRACK THE
BIGGEST CHANGE IS THE REDUCTION OF POPS FOR FRIDAY AS MODEL
CONSENSUS NARROWS TO A DRIER SOLUTION. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS LIKELY. THE MOST
ACTIVE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE EASTERN US SUPPORTING A
HIGH CHANCE OF POPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING,
GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A ROBUST LOW LEVEL JET IN
PLACE, OBSERVED FROM THE KCAE VAD WIND PROFILE. THIS SHOULD
PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WINDS
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS A WEAK INVERSION MIXES OUT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS BUT HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE REMAINS
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD (NEAR 06Z THURSDAY) BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS
ONCE AGAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...96
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