925
FXUS62 KCAE 071121
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
721 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH LATEST TRENDS
LIMITING SEVERE AND FLOODING RAIN THREAT TODAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
STORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WHILE THERE WAS A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT, A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH CURRENTLY WILL LEAD TO
STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 2 INCH
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTHERN AL/GA AND MAY JUST
BRUSH OUR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE DOES REMAIN
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT WHERE
THERE REMAINS SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS BUT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED, AT LEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS THE AREA REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY
WORKED OVER FROM THE CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED SEVERAL HOURS AGO
AND NOT SUFFICIENT TIME FOR AIR MASS RECOVERY. CAMS STILL SHOW
SOME SPREAD OF THE EVOLUTION AS THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THERE MAY BE ANOTHER BREAK AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW CAMS
FAVOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION AT THE SURFACE LATER THIS MORNING,
MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN AREA. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN
LIMITED, STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH HREF MEAN 850 MB JET AROUND 45
KNOTS, WILL LEAD TO A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN ANY STRONG STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. AS FAR AS THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT IS CONCERNED, WILL LIKELY REQUIRE MORE SIGNIFICANT
TRAINING CONVECTION TO SEE FLOODING OVER THE AREA. RAINFALL
RATES ARE GENERALLY MAXING OUT AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH
TO THE WEST MOVING IN. WHILE THESE RATES MAY INCREASE AS PWATS
INCREASE, IT REMAINS UNLIKELY THAT FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN
OUTSIDE OF ANY POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON, CONVECTION WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AS WELL AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN AREA
BUT WITH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING EAST, SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A DRIER FRIDAY. AS AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. LREF PROBABILITY OF
PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE AROUND 40-60% BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES
OF WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER REMAINS UNLIKELY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A FRONT.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH AXIS OF DEEPEST
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS
WEAK AND BEST IN THE CSRA THROUGH THE DAY SO LEFT THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT AGS/DNL/OGB/AIK WHILE KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS OUT
OF CAE/CUB. CEILINGS JUST WEST OF THE TERMINALS ARE MVFR/IFR AND
EXPECT THESE TO ARRIVE AROUND 12Z-14Z TIME FRAME ALL BUT OGB AND
BY 15Z AT OGB. VSBYS ARE MORE DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE BUT COULD
FALL TO IFR THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH ANY PERSISTENT AND HEAVY
SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS SHIFTS TO THE
WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AND WEAKENING
BELOW 10 KNOTS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...23
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