528
FXUS62 KCAE 071755
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
155 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH LATEST TRENDS
LIMITING SEVERE AND FLOODING RAIN THREAT TODAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAIN EXITS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY.
- 2. WET WEATHER ARRIVES AGAIN ON SATURDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT TAKES ITS SWEET TIME PUSHING
THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN EXITS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY.
MODERATE TO, AT TIMES, HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
SHOW A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST, WITH A FRONT DRAPED INTO
CENTRAL GA. AHEAD OF THIS, MOISTURE RICH AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
INTO THE AREA BENEATH STRONG 850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH
PWS IN THE 1.7"-1.8" RANGE, THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN QUITE
EFFICIENT AND HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY BUT IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS
LAST NIGHT. THE RAIN IS MOSTLY BENEFICIAL AT THIS POINT.
EXPECTING A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE
RAIN PROBABLY MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BY 2P OR 3P.
SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOUDY TO AN EXTENT, THOUGH, AS WV
IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING PERSISTENT HIGH
CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE STREAMING ATOP THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WET WEATHER ARRIVES AGAIN ON SATURDAY, PERSISTING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT TAKES ITS SWEET TIME PUSHING
THROUGH.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE STREAMING ATOP THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A
DEEP TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO PRECEDE THIS CUTOFF LOW, WITH
MOISTURE EASILY RECOVERING AHEAD OF EACH OF THESE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS UNCERTAIN BUT
LREF AND NBM GUIDANCE OVERLAP THE BEST PROBABILITIES OF >0.25"
AND >0.5" OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE
COASTAL PLAIN. OVERALL, THIS EVENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL POSE
LITTLE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER, WITH MAINLY BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO PUSH IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH DRIER
WEATHER LIKELY AGAIN.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
OF THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS AS WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING,
TURNING WINDS TOWARDS A MORE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. SOME
LINGERING LIGHT RAINFALL, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS, WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THEN BY 21Z TAF LOCATIONS WILL
SEE THE END OF THE RAINFALL AND BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
SHOULD BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS. ENOUGH
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP COME VFR CUMULUS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT, THEN MAINLY JUST THIN CIRRUS THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE ANY WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION LATE TONIGHT, BUT WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR BRIEF LOW STRATUS OR SOME PATCHY FOG RESTRICTIONS
IF WINDS CAN GO CALM ENOUGH AND SKIES CLEAR OUT ENOUGH. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAFS, BUT MAY NEED
TO BE MONITORED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...CAL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page