914
FXUS62 KCAE 072345
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
745 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE #1 UPDATED WITH UPDATED WORDING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
- 2. WET WEATHER ARRIVES AGAIN ON SATURDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT TAKES ITS SWEET TIME PUSHING
THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING, MAINLY IMPACTING THE FINGER OF
LANCASTER COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST WITH A
FINAL ROUND OF RAINFALL FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LANCASTER AND
CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES. CONVECTION IS NOT VERY ORGANIZED AND THE
SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING REMAINS LOW. THE RAIN THREAT SHOULD
BE OVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FA OUTSIDE OF THE FAR NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE
QUIET ONCE THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WET WEATHER ARRIVES AGAIN ON SATURDAY, PERSISTING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT TAKES ITS SWEET TIME PUSHING
THROUGH.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE STREAMING ATOP THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A
DEEP TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO PRECEDE THIS CUTOFF LOW, WITH
MOISTURE EASILY RECOVERING AHEAD OF EACH OF THESE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS UNCERTAIN BUT
LREF AND NBM GUIDANCE OVERLAP THE BEST PROBABILITIES OF >0.25"
AND >0.5" OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE
COASTAL PLAIN. OVERALL, THIS EVENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL POSE
LITTLE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER, WITH MAINLY BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO PUSH IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH DRIER
WEATHER LIKELY AGAIN.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE AS THE COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE DEPARTS OUR CWA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT TO VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED VFR STRATUS THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY THIN CIRRUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHALLOW
GROUND FOG OR BRIEF LOW STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF WINDS
BECOME CALM ENOUGH AND SKIES CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION AT THIS TIME, THOUGH TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING BETWEEN 5-7
KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/PL
AVIATION...ND
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