272
FXUS62 KCAE 080703
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
303 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. INCREASING MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR TODAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT
WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. NAEFS MEAN INDICATES IVT WILL BE ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EXACT TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CHANCES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FORCED BY WEAK
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH NEITHER DAY EXPECTED TO BE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN
AREA WHERE PWATS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST. WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS PROBABILITY OF TOTAL RAINFALL GREATER
THAN A HALF INCH IS BETWEEN 40-60 PERCENT GENERALLY SOUTH OF
I-20 THROUGH SUNDAY BASED ON GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER FORCING IN A COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE BENEFICIAL RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LINGERING SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS. AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF PASSING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. WINDS THROUGH
SUNRISE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS THEN
INCREASING FROM THE NORTHEAST 7 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 13Z. WINDS
BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 KNOTS
AFTER 20Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF
WINDS AND HIGHER CLOUDS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD LIMIT FOG
CONCERNS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...23
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