826
FXUS62 KCAE 081746
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
146 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. INCREASING MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO CHANCES
FOR RAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
BROAD TROUGHING ALONG WITH AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL BRING
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES INTERACT WITH PERSISTENT GULF MOISTURE. THE FIRST OF
THESE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. A DECAYING MCS COMPLICATES THE
FORECAST A BIT AND COULD CUT OFF AND ROB SOME MOISTURE AS IT
PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, LIKE HRRR DEPICTS. BUT
REGARDLESS, HIGH PWAT'S AND BROAD SYNOPTIC FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD PRODUCT SOME SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF OVERALL
TO THE NORTH, GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.5". THIS BROAD FORCING WILL
LINGER AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT WITH LESS INSTABILITY IN PLAY, SO WHILE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY, COVERAGE AND QPF TOTALS WILL BE
LIGHT. MORE CONSOLIDATED AND HEAVIER RAIN ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH STRONGER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 500-250MB TROUGH CROSSING
THE AREA. PWAT'S PUSH TOWARDS 1.75 - 2.0" ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH IVT ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. WHILE WE
COULD HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE MCS'S THAT CUT OFF SOME THIS MOISTURE,
THE SYNOPTIC FORCING, RESIDUAL INSTABILITY, AND HIGH PWAT'S
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS-STORMS REGARDLESS. INSTABILITY
DOES LOOK LACKING FOR ANY NOTABLE SEVERE THREAT BUT SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES PAIRED WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PWAT'S PRESENT A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IS PROGGED
AROUND 1-2" ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 AND 0.5-1.0" NORTHWARD; 90TH
PERCENTILE IN THE LREF PUSHES TOWARDS 3.0" SOUTH OF I-20 GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT, CONVECTIVE RAINFALL BOTH SATURDAY
AND MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY HAS WE EVENTUALLY
END UP WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OF THE PERSISTENT
TROUGHING.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, THEN
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. ALL SITES WILL SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL
BROKEN CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE BRINGS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS
FOR SATURDAY AFTER SUNSET. CEILINGS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS
THISMOISTURE MOVES IN, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOWARDS
11Z AT MOST SITES. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EXTENT OF ANY LIGHT RAIN TOMORROW MORNING, SO ONLY INCLUDED A
VCSH WITH THE 11Z PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, THEN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
RETURN TO MORE SOUTHERLY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...CAL
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