349
FXUS62 KCAE 082354
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
754 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. INCREASING MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO CHANCES
FOR RAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
BROAD TROUGHING ALONG WITH AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL BRING
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES INTERACT WITH PERSISTENT GULF MOISTURE. THE FIRST OF
THESE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. A DECAYING MCS COMPLICATES THE FORECAST
A BIT AND COULD CUT OFF AND ROB SOME MOISTURE AS IT PROPAGATES
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, LIKE HRRR DEPICTS. BUT REGARDLESS,
HIGH PWAT'S AND BROAD SYNOPTIC FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD PRODUCT SOME SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF
OVERALL TO THE NORTH, GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.5". THIS BROAD
FORCING WILL LINGER AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT WITH LESS INSTABILITY IN
PLAY, SO WHILE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY, COVERAGE AND QPF
TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT. MORE CONSOLIDATED AND HEAVIER RAIN ARRIVES
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH STRONGER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
500-250MB TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA. PWAT'S PUSH TOWARDS 1.75 -
2.0" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH IVT ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. WHILE WE COULD HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE MCS'S
THAT CUT OFF SOME THIS MOISTURE, THE SYNOPTIC FORCING, RESIDUAL
INSTABILITY, AND HIGH PWAT'S WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS-
STORMS REGARDLESS. INSTABILITY DOES LOOK LACKING FOR ANY NOTABLE
SEVERE THREAT BUT SKINNY CAPE PROFILES PAIRED WITH RELATIVELY
HIGH PWAT'S PRESENT A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING IS PROGGED AROUND 1-2" ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
AND 0.5-1.0" NORTHWARD; 90TH PERCENTILE IN THE LREF PUSHES
TOWARDS 3.0" SOUTH OF I-20 GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT,
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL BOTH SATURDAY AND MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE TUESDAY HAS WE EVENTUALLY END UP WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME OF THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, THEN POTENTIAL
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC SKIES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SPREADING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH A VCSH WAS INCLUDED AROUND THE 10-11Z PERIOD.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT, WITH
MVFR CIGS LIKELY DEVELOPING AT MOST TERMINALS AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER 11Z. A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
MIDDAY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A MORE
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT SATURDAY EVENING, THOUGH
BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/42
AVIATION...ND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page