879
FXUS62 KCAE 090652
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
252 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. INCREASING MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND STORMS THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO CHANCES
FOR RAIN THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WELL TO THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
NEAR TEXARKANA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MCS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
PROPOGATE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH HIGHEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE GULF
COAST WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OCCURING WITHIN
THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD FOR TODAY AMONG CAMS. HOWEVER, MOISTURE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH HREF MEAN PWATS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH
AND A QUARTER TO THE NORTH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE SOUTH. WITH
HREF PROBABILITY OF SBCAPE ABOVE 500 J/KG AROUND 60-70% THIS
AFTERNOON, SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL REMAINS LIKELY, FAVORING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
STRONGER WITH A 500MB TROUGH TO THE WEST FOR SUNDAY WHICH MAY SHIFT
SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN AREA AND KEEP STRONGEST FORCING TO
THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT, POPS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD FOR THE DAY
SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE KEPT SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO BE MONDAY WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT HAS LED
TO BLENDED GUIDANCE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE WITH PROBABILITY OF SBCAPE
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AROUND 40-60%. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PROFILES WITH LONG, SKINNY CAPE. THIS WOULD FAVOR MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH LIKELY LIMIT THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT, ALTHOUGH SOME ML GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED AT LEAST
A LOW END THREAT SO IT IS WORTH MONITORING. DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE TUESDAY HAS WE EVENTUALLY END UP WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME OF THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AROUND SUNRISE WITH MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT STREAM OF CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE
ADVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS RESULTING IN LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND POSSIBLE LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING IN. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MVFR CIGS BEGINNING
AROUND 12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 18Z-20Z WITH POSSIBLE
IFR CIGS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN PROLONGED IFR CIGS.
WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CIGS AND LOWER VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE
THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...23
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page