381
FXUS62 KCAE 091146
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
746 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. INCREASING MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND STORMS THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO CHANCES
FOR RAIN THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
8AM UPDATE: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN SC. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE THROUGH
9-10AM.
STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WELL TO THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
NEAR TEXARKANA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MCS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH HIGHEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE GULF
COAST WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OCCURRING
WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD FOR TODAY AMONG CAMS. HOWEVER,
MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH HREF MEAN PWATS GENERALLY
AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER TO THE NORTH TO AN INCH AND A HALF
IN THE SOUTH. WITH HREF PROBABILITY OF SBCAPE ABOVE 500 J/KG
AROUND 60-70% THIS AFTERNOON, SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL REMAINS
LIKELY, FAVORING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED STRONGER WITH A 500MB TROUGH TO
THE WEST FOR SUNDAY WHICH MAY SHIFT SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE
NORTHERN AREA AND KEEP STRONGEST FORCING TO THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT, POPS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD FOR THE DAY SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
STILL HAVE KEPT SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUES TO BE MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT HAS LED TO BLENDED GUIDANCE
A BIT MORE UNSTABLE WITH PROBABILITY OF SBCAPE GREATER THAN 1000
J/KG AROUND 40-60%. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROFILES WITH
LONG, SKINNY CAPE. THIS WOULD FAVOR MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH LIKELY LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT, ALTHOUGH SOME ML GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED AT LEAST A LOW
END THREAT SO IT IS WORTH MONITORING. DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE
TUESDAY HAS WE EVENTUALLY END UP WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME OF THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MIX OF VFR-IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND LOW
CIGS ROLL IN.
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS PUSHING SOME MVFR-IFR
CIGS INTO THE AREA. GENERALLY THE COLUMBIA TERMINALS SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR, MAYBE BRIEFLY DIPPING TO IFR, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THAT. AIK AND THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR
PERIODICALLY THROUGH 14Z ROUGHLY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WITHIN THIS PLUME OF INCREASING MOISTURE, WITH SOME INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAINLY BEFORE 18Z. RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY
DECREASE AFTER 18Z FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CIGS AND VSBY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...42
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