243
FXUS62 KCAE 091708
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
108 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPECTED RAIN TOTALS TICKED DOWN THROUGH MONDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY-SUNDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MONDAY, BUT POTENTIAL TOTALS HAVE
TRENDED DOWN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY-SUNDAY
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MONDAY, BUT POTENTIAL TOTALS
HAVE TRENDED DOWN.
A RELATIVELY UNSETTLED PATTERNS CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS DEEP TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE
EASTERN US AND INTERACTS WITH A RESERVOIR OF GULF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT
RAIN CHANCES ARE STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AS A SERIES OF STRONG
MCS'S HAVE CUT OFF SOME OF THE GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION. GENERAL
INSTABILITY AND HIGH PWAT'S COULD STILL POP SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSH THROUGH, BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS HAS TRENDED DOWN. LREF
CLUSTERS AND OVERALL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON POTENTIAL TOTALS FROM THIS SLOWING FRONT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA; GENERALLY 0.5-1.0" LIKELY ALONG I-95 AND SOUTH
OF I-20, LESS THAN 0.25" EXPECTED TO THE NORTH OF I-20. OVERALL
THE DOWN TREND IN TOTALS IS DUE TO SOME OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT AND STRONGER CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH. THESE BOTH
PREVENT THE STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HIGHER PWAT'S FROM
PUSHING INTO SC. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE
FOCUSED IN THE AFTERNOON, CLOSER TO THE COAST AND IN THE
SOUTHERN CSRA. DRIER AIR FILLS IN LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
GENERALLY VFR AND MVFR CIG CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE SOME LOWER STRATUS ROLLS IN.
WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA, BRINGING CIGS
DOWN, RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED SOUTH OF ALL
TAF LOCATIONS. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON THAT COULD IMPACT TERMINALS, BUT BELOW CONFIDENCE FOR
A TAF MENTION RIGHT NOW. CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD
CLIMB BACK TO VFR WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS.
TONIGHT, SOME INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PUSH LOWER STRATUS INTO
THE REGION WITH MVFR OR IFR CIGS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY SNEAK INTO OGB AS THIS PUSH OF LOW STRATUS MOVES IN
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
ADDITIONAL LOW END RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LAST SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...42
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