065
FXUS62 KCAE 092325
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
725 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED SATURDAY WORDING AND UPDATED FIRST PARAGRAPH OF KEY
MESSAGE 1 TO REFLECT DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MONDAY. POTENTIAL TOTALS
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MONDAY. POTENTIAL TOTALS
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN.
A RELATIVELY UNSETTLED PATTERNS CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS
DEEP TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN US AND INTERACTS WITH A
RESERVOIR OF GULF MOISTURE. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES ARE STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AS
A SERIES OF STRONG CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS HAVE CUT OFF SOME OF THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CSRA
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS, ROUGHLY FROM BURKE TO CLARENDON
COUNTIES. EVEN HERE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH. GENERAL INSTABILITY AND HIGH PWAT'S COULD
STILL POP SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20, BUT OVERALL A DRY
MOTHER'S DAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
FAVORED.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSH THROUGH, BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS HAS TRENDED DOWN. LREF
CLUSTERS AND OVERALL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON POTENTIAL TOTALS FROM THIS SLOWING FRONT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA; GENERALLY 0.5-1.0" LIKELY ALONG I-95 AND SOUTH
OF I-20, LESS THAN 0.25" EXPECTED TO THE NORTH OF I-20. OVERALL
THE DOWN TREND IN TOTALS IS DUE TO SOME OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT AND STRONGER CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH. THESE BOTH
PREVENT THE STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HIGHER PWAT'S FROM
PUSHING INTO SC. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE
FOCUSED IN THE AFTERNOON, CLOSER TO THE COAST AND IN THE
SOUTHERN CSRA. DRIER AIR FILLS IN LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS AS
THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPORARILY CLEAR OUT IN BETWEEN WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES. OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
OVERHEAD, ALLOWING THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF STRATUS
TO BUMP BACK NORTHWARD. HOW FAR NORTH THEY GET IS A BIT OF A
QUESTION MARK WITH HI-RES MODELS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH NORTHWARD
RETURN THAN GLOBAL MODELS. FOR NOW, I WON'T STRAY FAR FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
MODEL MEANS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THE FORECAST MAY BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA AREA TAFS.
THE LOWER CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BREAK BY MID MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER, BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS RIGHT NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY WITH MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/42
AVIATION...FA
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