025
FXUS62 KCAE 100612
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED A BIT FURTHER ACROSS GUIDANCE
MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-20 THIS MORNING WITH MORE RAIN AND POSSIBLE STORM CHANCES
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 THIS MORNING WITH MORE RAIN AND POSSIBLE STORM
CHANCES MONDAY.
THIS MORNING/TODAY: EARLY MORNING RADAR SHOWS A BATCH OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS SE GA AND TOWARD THE SC COAST AND SOME LIGHT
RETURNS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL GA. PWAT'S ACROSS THE FA ARE AROUND
1", A BIT HIGHER TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THE TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN US. THE LATEST HREF MEAN SOLUTION AND MULTIPLE CAM'S
INDICATE A COUPLE SHOWERS WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD PUSH INTO THE
FA JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 BEFORE CLEARING
OUT BY THE MID MORNING. OVERALL, ANY AMOUNTS WITH THESE SHOWERS
WOULD AMOUNT TO LESS THAN 0.10". HREF MEMBERS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
THIS AFTERNOON AS PWAT'S REMAIN NEAR 1" TO JUST UNDER THIS WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY. A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE FULLY RULED
OUT, BUT AT THIS TIME POP'S REMAIN BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MONDAY: A SHARP SHORTWAVE BEGINS APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH PWAT'S RAISING TO
1.25-1.50" AS A RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
OVERHEAD. WITH THIS SAID, THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTABLE
ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD AS BOTH THE 00Z HREF
AND REFS QPF LPMM SHOW LESS 0.25" FOR MUCH OF THE FA WITH SPOTS
OF 0.5-1.0" WHERE CONVECTION MOVES OVER. THIS COMES AS THE MOST
ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY KEPT SOUTH OF THE
CWA, HAMPERING STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD. THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BE THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN CSRA WHERE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200-800 J/KG
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40 KTS. THESE PROFILES ALSO
DEPICT DECENT INVERTED "V" PROFILES WITH DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN
600-900 J/KG SO STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY
STRONGER CELL OR CLUSTER DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IN
ORDER FOR ANY OF THESE STRONGER STORMS TO MATERIALIZE, TRENDS OF
MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THERE
REMAINS MULTIPLE CAM'S (LIKE THE RECENT HRRR) THAT CUT OFF
MOISTURE TO THE FA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN AL/GA AND THE PANHANDLE OF FL.
DRIER AIR THEN IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS SHOWN MOVING OUT OF ALBERTA IN BOTH ENSEMBLE
AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH SHOULD WORK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE FA AND
RETURNING RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AROUND DAWN THIS
MORNING.
WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A BAND
OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN GA MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND IMPACT OGB BRINGING SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED IN HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WHILE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME
POSSIBLE BRIEF CIG RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME
MAINLY AT AGS/DNL/AIK/OGB CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN DECREASING IN
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. WILL KEEP A VFR FORECAST AT CAE/CUB
WHILE INCLUDING A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS FOR POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS 09Z-13Z. AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AND RETURN TO
VFR BY 14Z. LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EXPECTED INTO MID
MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP A BIT FROM THE WEST TO AROUND 5 TO
8 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY WITH MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...23
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