707
FXUS62 KCAE 101040
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
640 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MONDAY. POTENTIAL TOTALS
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MONDAY. POTENTIAL
TOTALS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN.
A RELATIVELY UNSETTLED PATTERNS CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS
DEEP TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN US AND INTERACTS WITH A
RESERVOIR OF GULF MOISTURE. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES ARE STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AS
A SERIES OF STRONG CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS HAVE CUT OFF SOME OF THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CSRA
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS, ROUGHLY FROM BURKE TO CLARENDON
COUNTIES. EVEN HERE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH. GENERAL INSTABILITY AND HIGH PWAT'S COULD
STILL POP SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20, BUT OVERALL A DRY
MOTHER'S DAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
FAVORED.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSH THROUGH, BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS HAS TRENDED DOWN. LREF
CLUSTERS AND OVERALL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON POTENTIAL TOTALS FROM THIS SLOWING FRONT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA; GENERALLY 0.5-1.0" LIKELY ALONG I-95 AND SOUTH
OF I-20, LESS THAN 0.25" EXPECTED TO THE NORTH OF I-20. OVERALL
THE DOWN TREND IN TOTALS IS DUE TO SOME OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT AND STRONGER CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH. THESE BOTH
PREVENT THE STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HIGHER PWAT'S FROM
PUSHING INTO SC. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE
FOCUSED IN THE AFTERNOON, CLOSER TO THE COAST AND IN THE
SOUTHERN CSRA. DRIER AIR FILLS IN LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOCTURAL COOLING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/STRATUS. AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AND RETURN TO
VFR BY 14Z BUT WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR RESTRICTIONS TO
START THE FORECAST. LIGHT WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED INTO
MID MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP A BIT FROM THE WEST TO AROUND 5
TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY WITH MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...23
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page