185
FXUS62 KCAE 101650
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1250 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MONDAY. POTENTIAL TOTALS
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MONDAY. POTENTIAL
TOTALS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN.
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH PWAT'S ONLY AROUND
1.0" ACROSS THE AREA. WE REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
US. THIS IS TEMPORARILY INCREASING MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
THEREFORE CAPPING US OUT TODAY. SO SHOWERS AND STORMS CHANCES
ARE LOW THE REST OF TODAY. A COUPLE OF BRIEF SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY, ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN BURKE AND THE
SOUTHERN CSRA.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSH THROUGH,
BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS HAS CONTINUED TO
TREND DOWN. WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT JUST
OFFSHORE AS A SHORTWAVE ROLLS THROUGH WILL PREVENT MOST OF THE
DEEP MOISTURE FROM ADVECTING VERY FAR NORTHWARD, THEREFORE
KEEPING THE RELATIVELY LOW PWAT'S IN PLACE THAT WE SAW SUNDAY
NORTH OF I-20. PWAT'S WILL FAVORABLY INCREASE SOUTH OF I-20
ALONG WITH MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOMING MARGINALLY MORE
FAVORABLE. SO HEAVY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE GENERALLY FOCUSED
IN THESE AREAS BUT THE CHANCE FOR NOTABLY ACCUMULATIONS, EVEN
OVER 0.5" LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY NOW. DRIER AIR FILLS IN LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY
WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED CU AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
INTO THE EVENING. MOISTURE PUSHES IN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND SOME MORNING STRATUS-FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN DEPENDENT
ON HOW FAST MID-LEVEL CLOUD MOVES IN. RIGHT NOW INCLUDED A LINE
FOR THIS MORNING POTENTIAL BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW. RAIN
CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL PUSH IN TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORM
POTENTIAL INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TUESDAY WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS
LATER WEDNESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...42
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page