426
FXUS62 KCAE 102327
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
727 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE UPDATED TO REMOVE SUNDAY VERBIAGE AND DISCUSS
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
MIDLANDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF I-20. MODEL GUIDANCE
DIFFERS GREATLY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FA WITH MOST CAMS, INCLUDING THE HRRR, SHOWING VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. THE ARW IS THE MOST BULLISH OF THE
HREF MEMBERS AND EVEN THIS MODEL FAVORS LOCATIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. THE FA IS ALSO BISECTED BY A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW, ROUGHLY FROM THOMSON TO
COLUMBIA TO FLORENCE. WHILE SOME GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH ANY ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS, THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THE COLLISION OF
THE SEA BREEZE MAY BE THE BEST SOURCE OF LIFT FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR FILLS IN LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES
FOR MIDDAY.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AROUND
DAYBREAK, SO KEPT THE TEMPO GROUP GOING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BOUNDARY ARE THEN POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDAY
TO AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 GROUP WITH THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM OVERNIGHT, BECOME MAINLY WESTERLY AFTER ABOUT 14Z,
INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTH CLOSER TO 10 KTS AFTER THE BOUNDARY PASSES AROUND 20Z-21Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY WITH
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...29
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page