769
FXUS62 KCAE 110614
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
214 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH. ADDED KEY MESSAGE FOR FRONT MOVING IN DURING
THE MID WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- 2. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THERE HAS BEEN MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OUTLOOK FOR CONVECTION
LATER TODAY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SLOWING WORKING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN MO TOWARD THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION. AS NEW GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN, TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP POP'S
ACROSS THE FA FAIRLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH MEAN QPF AMOUNTS
IN BOTH THE 00Z HREF AND REFS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10-0.25".
THE LPMM FOR QPF IN EACH IS ALSO RATHER SPOTTY, WITH ANY AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 0.50" FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS PWAT'S REACH NEAR 1.50",
BUT THE GREATEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. IN GENERAL, MEAN MUCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE UNDER
500 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE FA WITH SPOTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
MIDLANDS CLOSER TO 1000-1200 J/KG AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 40-50 KTS AS THE SHORTWAVE IMPINGES ON THE
AREA. THIS ENVIRONMENT, WITH DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT, SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS
MORNING, CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ENSEMBLE PAINTBALLS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR BETTER COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT INDIVIDUAL CAM'S DO SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS
COULD BE SEEN CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR. OVERALL, WITH THE
EXPECTED LACK OF COVERAGE, THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS LOW, BUT ANY ROBUST STORMS/CLUSTERS COULD BRING
THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 600-800
J/KG ARE SEEN WITH A WEAK INVERTED "V" PROFILE. A COUPLE
INSTANCES OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. IN THE
CWA, THIS RISK WOULD BE GREATEST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS,
BUT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO
THE COAST. A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS, THOUGH HAS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTHWARD ALONG A LINE
ROUGHLY FROM WAYNESBORO TO ST. MATTHEWS TO FLORENCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES.
THERE IS SOLID ENSEMBLE AND CLUSTER CONSENSUS THAT BY TUESDAY
THIS WEEK A DEEP TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BEFORE DEEPENING A BIT FURTHER INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. THIS UPPER SUPPORT AND FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE ALL TO IMPRESSIVE AS GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE PWAT'S ONLY
REACH UP TO 110-115% OF NORMAL. TIMING UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR
FROPA ACROSS THE AREA, BUT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SEEM POSSIBLE
WITH THIS, MAINLY NEAR THE PEE DEE. A WARMING TREND IS THEN SEEN
INTO THE LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH BRIEF PATCHY
GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR
MIDDAY.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WHICH MAY BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR
FOG FORMATION. EVEN SO, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF MVFR PATCHY
GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF AND BEHIND AN APPROACHING SURFACE
COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH THIS FRONT. GUIDANCE
STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ON SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IT APPEARS AS IF
COVERAGE MAY BE QUITE ISOLATED NEAR TAF LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. GREATER COVERAGE AND STRONGER ACTIVITY MAY END UP BEING
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA, CLOSER TO THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN SO, STILL KEPT A MENTION OF PROB30 AT ALL SITES
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY FOR NOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM THROUGH SUNRISE, BECOME MAINLY WESTERLY
AFTER ABOUT 14Z, INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS. MAY SEE SOME HIGHER
WIND GUSTS ENTER THE AREA AROUND WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES IN AROUND
20-21 Z. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTH ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY WITH
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...CAL
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