294
FXUS62 KCAE 111050
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
650 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH. ADDED KEY MESSAGE FOR FRONT MOVING IN DURING
THE MID WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- 2. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THERE HAS BEEN MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OUTLOOK FOR CONVECTION
LATER TODAY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SLOWING WORKING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN MO TOWARD THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION. AS NEW GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN, TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP POP'S
ACROSS THE FA FAIRLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH MEAN QPF AMOUNTS
IN BOTH THE 00Z HREF AND REFS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10-0.25".
THE LPMM FOR QPF IN EACH IS ALSO RATHER SPOTTY, WITH ANY AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 0.50" FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS PWAT'S REACH NEAR 1.50",
BUT THE GREATEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. IN GENERAL, MEAN MUCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE UNDER
500 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE FA WITH SPOTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
MIDLANDS CLOSER TO 1000-1200 J/KG AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 40-50 KTS AS THE SHORTWAVE IMPINGES ON THE
AREA. THIS ENVIRONMENT, WITH DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT, SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS
MORNING, CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ENSEMBLE PAINTBALLS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR BETTER COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT INDIVIDUAL CAM'S DO SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS
COULD BE SEEN CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR. OVERALL, WITH THE
EXPECTED LACK OF COVERAGE, THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS LOW, BUT ANY ROBUST STORMS/CLUSTERS COULD BRING
THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 600-800
J/KG ARE SEEN WITH A WEAK INVERTED "V" PROFILE. A COUPLE
INSTANCES OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. IN THE
CWA, THIS RISK WOULD BE GREATEST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS,
BUT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO
THE COAST. A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS, THOUGH HAS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTHWARD ALONG A LINE
ROUGHLY FROM WAYNESBORO TO ST. MATTHEWS TO FLORENCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES.
THERE IS SOLID ENSEMBLE AND CLUSTER CONSENSUS THAT BY TUESDAY
THIS WEEK A DEEP TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BEFORE DEEPENING A BIT FURTHER INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. THIS UPPER SUPPORT AND FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE ALL TO IMPRESSIVE AS GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE PWAT'S ONLY
REACH UP TO 110-115% OF NORMAL. TIMING UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR
FROPA ACROSS THE AREA, BUT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SEEM POSSIBLE
WITH THIS, MAINLY NEAR THE PEE DEE. A WARMING TREND IS THEN SEEN
INTO THE LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z, ESPECIALLY NEAR KOGB THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS NOON.
REGIONAL SATELLITE ALONG WITH SURFACE OBS AND TRAFFIC CAMERAS
ARE SHOWING SOME FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. THIS
COULD IMPACT KOGB THROUGH 13Z WITH SOME IFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THAT TIME. HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN ALOFT SHOULD
HELP TO INHIBIT MORE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS TAFS SITES, SO ALL
REMAINING SITES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH VFR THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF AND BEHIND AN
APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
THIS FRONT. GUIDANCE STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ON SHOWERS/STORMS
TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT APPEARS AS IF COVERAGE MAY BE
QUITE ISOLATED NEAR TAF LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATER
COVERAGE AND STRONGER ACTIVITY MAY END UP BEING LOCATED SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA, CLOSER TO THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN SO, STILL KEPT A MENTION OF PROB30 AT ALL SITES
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY FOR NOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM THROUGH SUNRISE, BECOME MAINLY WESTERLY
AFTER ABOUT 14Z, INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS. MAY SEE SOME HIGHER
WIND GUSTS ENTER THE AREA AROUND WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES IN AROUND
20-21Z. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTH ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY WITH
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...CAL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page