114
FXUS62 KCAE 111805
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
- 2. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION TODAY HAS STARTED TO FIRE UP BUT REMAINS NEAR THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY
WORKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE
EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MO TOWARD THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION. TRENDS
HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP POP'S FAIRLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
MEAN QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10-0.25". WITH ANY
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 0.50" FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH THE FA
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS PWAT'S REACH NEAR 1.50", BUT THE
GREATEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ENSEMBLE PAINTBALLS CONTINUE TO FAVOR BETTER COVERAGE GENERALLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT INDIVIDUAL CAM'S DO
SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS COULD BE SEEN CLOSER TO THE I-20
CORRIDOR.
OVERALL, WITH THE EXPECTED LACK OF COVERAGE, THE RISK FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW, BUT ANY ROBUST
STORMS/CLUSTERS COULD BRING THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS
DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 600-800 J/KG ARE SEEN WITH A WEAK INVERTED
"V" PROFILE. A COUPLE INSTANCES OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS WELL. IN THE CWA, THIS RISK WOULD BE GREATEST IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS, BUT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST. A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS, THOUGH HAS SHIFTED A BIT
SOUTHWARD ALONG A LINE ROUGHLY FROM WAYNESBORO TO ST. MATTHEWS
TO FLORENCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE IS SOLID ENSEMBLE AND CLUSTER CONSENSUS THAT BY TUESDAY
THIS WEEK, A DEEP TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BEFORE DEEPENING A BIT FURTHER INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. THIS UPPER SUPPORT AND FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. TIMING UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS, MAINLY NEAR THE
PEE DEE.
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE EJECTS TO THE EAST, MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING TOWARD A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER THE
MID-ATLATNIC ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY HELP LOWER TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS WITH DRY CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL THEN EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY REACHING THE 90S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. AN
ISOLATED STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE AT OGB THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
DISTINCTLY QUIET WEATHER ONGOING AHEAD OF IT CURRENTLY. PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES HAVE BEEN NOTED ON AND OFF TODAY, WITH CLOUD COVER
REMAINING VFR AT ALL SITES. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT OGB THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS SEEMS
INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY. FROM THERE, THIS BECOMES LARGELY A WIND
FORECAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER AS THE PERIOD GOES ALONG &
BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. FIRST, WINDS SHOULD
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THIS
EVENING, THEY ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z, SUBSIDING A BIT AS THE FRONT SINKS
TO OUR SOUTH. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE HANGING AROUND BUT
REMAINING VFR, WITH BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING
CLOUD COVER GENERALLY STAYING BETWEEN 5KFT AND 10KFT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY WITH
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...PL
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