163
FXUS62 KCAE 112342
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
742 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENDED FOR TODAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
- 2. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION, DRY AIR IS PUSHING
ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS NOTED BY
DROPPING DEW POINTS. THIS DRY AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY, RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
DROPPING TO 25-35% IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TOMORROW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
BREEZY WINDS AS GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES,
RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE IS SOLID ENSEMBLE AND CLUSTER CONSENSUS THAT BY TUESDAY
THIS WEEK, A DEEP TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BEFORE DEEPENING A BIT FURTHER INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. THIS UPPER SUPPORT AND FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. TIMING UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS, MAINLY NEAR THE
PEE DEE.
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE EJECTS TO THE EAST, MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING TOWARD A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER THE
MID-ATLATNIC ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY HELP LOWER TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS WITH DRY CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL THEN EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY REACHING THE 90S.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT IS WORKING THROUGH THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR
POURING INTO THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. EXPECT DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 06Z, MAINLY AT CAE, OGB, AND AIK. WINDS TRANSITION TO
EASTERLY ON TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING, NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT EVEN AT FOG PRONE AGS. A 30
KT LLJ RAISES SOME CONCERN FOR LLWS CRITERIA AFTER 06Z BUT AS
LONG AS SURFACE WINDS STAY UP AS EXPECTED ALL SITES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...CJR
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