661
FXUS62 KCAE 120611
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
POP'S HAVE DECREASED WITH THE MID WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.
- 2. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT A DRIER AIRMASS IS SHIFTING INTO
THE REGION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS ALREADY FALLING INTO THE
LOWER 50S AND VALUES INTO THE LOWER 40S PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
NC. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THIS DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION TODAY AS MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
NEAR CRITICAL VALUES BETWEEN 25-30%. A COUPLE SPOTS FALLING
BELOW 25% WILL BE POSSIBLE. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH
LINGERING 25- 30 KTS OF FLOW AROUND 925MB SHOULD ALLOW GUSTS TO
15-20 MPH TO MIX DOWN THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DECAYING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OVERALL,
THIS COMBINATION SHOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THE MID WEEK FRONT IS THE TREND TOWARD A
DRIER SOLUTION ACROSS ENSEMBLE AND GLOBAL MODELS. THIS IS NOT
VERY SURPRISING CONSIDERING MEAN PWAT VALUES STRUGGLE TO REACH
ABOVE 1.0- 1.10" ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. THE TIMING OF FROPA CONTINUES TO
APPEAR AS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AS SOME HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE REACHES TOWARD THIS PERIOD, THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN
INDICATION OF ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY TOWARD THE PEE DEE. A LOOK AT THE
RECENT REFS SOLUTION DOES INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL WHERE
LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE 18Z MPAS-RRFS ALSO SHOWS AROUND 200-600 J/KG
OF MLCAPE IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING THROUGH SO DESPITE THE TREND TOWARD A
DRIER SOLUTION, AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POP'S SEEM REASONABLE
EAST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR.
DRIER CONDITIONS THEN ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT, THOUGH
UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. AFTER THIS, A SHARP UPPER RIDGE IS
DISPLAYED SHIFTING INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND ACROSS GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK. IQR RANGES
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK ARE FAIRLY SMALL AND HINT AT
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY REACHING INTO THE 90S. THIS PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS HIGHLIGHTED WELL IN THE EC EFI AS
VALUES REACH BETWEEN 0.7-0.8 STARTING SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF ALL TAF LOCATIONS, WITH DRIER
AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA IN LOW-LEVELS ON GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT BRING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND OVER TOP OF THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY RAINFALL TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH WINDS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS THROUGH SUNRISE, FOG WILL NOT
BE AN ISSUE. A 30 KT LLJ RAISES SOME CONCERN FOR LLWS CRITERIA
AFTER 06Z BUT AS LONG AS SURFACE WINDS STAY UP AS EXPECTED ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. GUSTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND EVEN THROUGH THE DAYTIME WILL BE BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS.
CLOUD COVER REMAINS VFR, WITH MAINLY BROKEN CLOUD DECK AROUND
BETWEEN 6-8 KFT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN LIFTING
HIGHER AND THINNING SOME THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...CAL
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