036
FXUS62 KCAE 121047
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
POP'S HAVE DECREASED WITH THE MID WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.
- 2. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT A DRIER AIRMASS IS SHIFTING INTO
THE REGION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS ALREADY FALLING INTO THE
LOWER 50S AND VALUES INTO THE LOWER 40S PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
NC. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THIS DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION TODAY AS MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
NEAR CRITICAL VALUES BETWEEN 25-30%. A COUPLE SPOTS FALLING
BELOW 25% WILL BE POSSIBLE. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH
LINGERING 25- 30 KTS OF FLOW AROUND 925MB SHOULD ALLOW GUSTS TO
15-20 MPH TO MIX DOWN THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DECAYING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OVERALL,
THIS COMBINATION SHOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THE MID WEEK FRONT IS THE TREND TOWARD A
DRIER SOLUTION ACROSS ENSEMBLE AND GLOBAL MODELS. THIS IS NOT
VERY SURPRISING CONSIDERING MEAN PWAT VALUES STRUGGLE TO REACH
ABOVE 1.0- 1.10" ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. THE TIMING OF FROPA CONTINUES TO
APPEAR AS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AS SOME HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE REACHES TOWARD THIS PERIOD, THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN
INDICATION OF ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY TOWARD THE PEE DEE. A LOOK AT THE
RECENT REFS SOLUTION DOES INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL WHERE
LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE 18Z MPAS-RRFS ALSO SHOWS AROUND 200-600 J/KG
OF MLCAPE IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING THROUGH SO DESPITE THE TREND TOWARD A
DRIER SOLUTION, AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POP'S SEEM REASONABLE
EAST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR.
DRIER CONDITIONS THEN ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT, THOUGH
UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. AFTER THIS, A SHARP UPPER RIDGE IS
DISPLAYED SHIFTING INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND ACROSS GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK. IQR RANGES
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK ARE FAIRLY SMALL AND HINT AT
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY REACHING INTO THE 90S. THIS PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS HIGHLIGHTED WELL IN THE EC EFI AS
VALUES REACH BETWEEN 0.7-0.8 STARTING SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
ALONG A COLD FRONT, MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN OFF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL
KEEP NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY, WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. WIND
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON, TURNING MORE
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS GULF MOISTURE TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER CEILINGS REMAIN VFR, WITH MOST CLOUD
HEIGHTS ABOVE 5KFT. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC INTO
TONIGHT, THERE SHOULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL THINNING AND LIFTING OF
ANY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS, LEAVING ONLY SOME THIN SCATTERED
CIRRUS IN ITS WAKE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLAND. OTHERWISE
NO RAINFALL WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...CAL
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