082
FXUS62 KCAE 121744
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
144 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED THE POSSIBILITY FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO
REMAIN THIS WEEK. SEPARATED THE LAST KEY MESSAGE INTO TWO
SECTIONS DISCUSSING THE MIDWEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.
- 2. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES.
- 3. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN WITHIN A COOL AND DRY PATTERN
FOLLOWING YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS
CONTINUED TO ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH DEW
POINTS STEADILY FALLING. RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD NEAR
CRITICAL VALUES BETWEEN 30-35%. A COUPLE SPOTS FALLING BELOW
30% WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE GUSTING CLOSE TO 15-20 KNOTS IN
SOME PLACES AS MIXING HAS OCCURRED, BUT WINDS SHOULD START
DECAYING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY,
SEVERAL DAYS THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE RH VALUES NEARING
CRITICAL LEVELS, HOWEVER, WINDS REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ANY
FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES.
A FAIRLY WEAK BUT DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD
DRIER SOLUTIONS ACROSS ENSEMBLE AND GLOBAL MODELS, FAVORING A
WEAKER AND SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL PASSAGE. POOR
TROUGH ORIENTATION WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AS SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE REACHES TOWARD
THIS PERIOD, THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN INDICATION OF ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY
TOWARD THE PEE DEE. A LOOK AT THE RECENT REFS SOLUTION DOES
INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL WHERE LIMITED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z
MPAS-RRFS ALSO A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING THROUGH,
SO DESPITE THE TREND TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION, AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POP'S SEEM REASONABLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MIDLANDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN, ALTHOUGH A LINGERING
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TO END THIS WEEK. AFTER THIS, A REBUILDING AND INFLUENCE
FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SHARP RIDGE WILL BRING BACK A BLOCKING PATTERN
OVER THE CAROLINA'S WITH BROAD AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DRAPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY REACHING INTO THE 90S. THIS PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS HIGHLIGHTED WELL IN THE EC EFI AS
VALUES REACH BETWEEN 0.8-0.9 STARTING SUNDAY. DEW POINTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S,
HOWEVER, A RELATIVELY WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTS FOR LIMITED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A QUIET PERIOD OF AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO, SENDING WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ATOP THE AREA. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, USHERING
IN DRY SURFACE AIR AND BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY OR EASTERLY WINDS TO
THE TAF SITES. AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT, THE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY
EXPECTED TO LIFT HIGHER IN THE ATMOSPHERE UNTIL THEY REALLY
AREN'T AROUND ANYMORE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF
SHORE AND TO THE EAST. WE'LL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS, BUT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY OUR WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THIS GENERALLY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT AS A RESULT OF
ALL OF THIS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLAND. OTHERWISE
NO RAINFALL WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...PL
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