320
FXUS62 KCAE 122347
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
747 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE DIMINISHING AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, SO HAVE REMOVED THE PREVIOUS KEY MESSAGE #1. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES.
- 2. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES.
A FAIRLY WEAK BUT DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD
DRIER SOLUTIONS ACROSS ENSEMBLE AND GLOBAL MODELS, FAVORING A
WEAKER AND SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL PASSAGE. POOR
TROUGH ORIENTATION WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AS SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE REACHES TOWARD
THIS PERIOD, THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN INDICATION OF ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY
TOWARD THE PEE DEE. A LOOK AT THE RECENT REFS SOLUTION DOES
INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL WHERE LIMITED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z
MPAS-RRFS ALSO A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING THROUGH,
SO DESPITE THE TREND TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION, AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POP'S SEEM REASONABLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MIDLANDS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, DRY AIR SETTLES BACK
INTO THE AREA, INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN, ALTHOUGH A LINGERING
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TO END THIS WEEK. AFTER THIS, A REBUILDING AND INFLUENCE
FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SHARP RIDGE WILL BRING BACK A BLOCKING PATTERN
OVER THE CAROLINA'S WITH BROAD AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DRAPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY REACHING INTO THE 90S. THIS PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS HIGHLIGHTED WELL IN THE EC EFI AS
VALUES REACH BETWEEN 0.8-0.9 STARTING SUNDAY. DEW POINTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S,
HOWEVER, A RELATIVELY WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTS FOR LIMITED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND A 20 TO 25 KT LLJ
NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SW AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE TAFS HAVE VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH 16Z BUT IT COULD TAKE AS
LATE AS 18Z TO SEE WINDS START PICKING UP FROM 5 TO 10 KTS. WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST WE DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS,
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...CJR
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