094
FXUS62 KCAE 131046
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
646 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO FORECAST AS A TREND TOWARD A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE CONTINUES. ADDED KEY MESSAGE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE A STRAY SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- 2. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY
BEHIND COLD FRONT.
- 3. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE OUTLOOK FOR A FRONT CURRENTLY
WORKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY'S. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, MOISTURE ADVECTION
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK AS A SURFACE LOW WORKING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA KEEPS LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFF SHORE, FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND
PWAT'S STRUGGLE TO REACH NEAR 1.0-1.10" BY THIS EVENING. THERE
REMAINS SOLID CONSENSUS ACROSS THE LATEST HREF, REFS, AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE MEMBERS, THAT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, A STRAY SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TOWARD THE
PEE DEE, BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. THE GREATEST
UPPER SUPPORT KEEPING NORTH OF THE FA AND LIMITED CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT AID IN PRECLUDING INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD WORK THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, TURNING WINDS BACK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS WORKING IN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT.
AS MENTIONED AT THE END OF KEY MESSAGE #1, VERY DRY AIR SHOULD
MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY, SOLID MIXING COMBINED
WITH DOWNSLOPING MAY AID IN DROPPING DEW POINTS A BIT FURTHER
THAN CURRENTLY MODELED THURSDAY. WITH REFS PROBABILITIES FOR
SURFACE DEWPOINTS LESS THAN 35F REACHING BETWEEN 50-70%, THERE
IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT MINIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NEAR IF NOT FALL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES FOR MUCH
OF THE FA. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT
COULD BRING WIND GUSTS UP TO 15-20 MPH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. LUCKILY, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH TO NOT NEED A FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT, BUT A LACK OF
RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT, DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AND A VERY DRY AIR
MASS MOVING IN SHOULD BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER TROUGHING LINGERINGS THROUGH FRIDAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL, BUT A DRY AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.
ENSEMBLE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE THEN INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE
WORKING INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND WITH A STRENGTHENING
BERMUDA HIGH, THAT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE POTENTIALLY BREAKING DOWN SOME DURING THE MID
WEEK. PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING 850
MB TEMPERATURES NEAR THE NAEFS 90TH PERCENTILE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES THAT REACH THE 90S SATURDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEK. EC EFI VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 0.7-0.8 THROUGH TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK, AIDING IN INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
DRY, BUT BY SUNDAY THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT AS THE FA FINDS
ITSELF MORE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
BERMUDA HIGH, INCREASING MOISTURE AND SEASONABLE INSTABILITY
COULD BRING SPOTTY DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, EXCEPT THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING
WHERE MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE FOUND. AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE
CSRA OR EASTERN MIDLANDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG NORTHERN FL WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ALONG WILL CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO
SOUTHERN SC AND THE CSRA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS HAVE DROPPED TO
LOW END VFR AND EVEN SOME UPPER END MVFR IN PLACES AS THIS
MOISTURE DEEPENS. REGIONAL RADARS ALSO INDICATING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY RAIN REMAINS LOW, AND WILL NOT PUT
IN AGS/DNL/AIK/OGB AT THIS TIME, BUT A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR
THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY CEILINGS WILL BE LIFTING WITH ALL
SITES VFR BY 18Z AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING WINDS FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS MORNING, TO MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY
WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY, BUT THAT IS NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD BEHIND THE MAIN COLD FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...CAL
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