143
FXUS62 KCAE 131753
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AS A TREND TOWARD A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE CONTINUES. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE A STRAY SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- 2. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY
BEHIND COLD FRONT.
- 3. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD TOUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. A
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY, WITH PWAT VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 1" ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA. FORCING AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
WEAK, AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE SYSTEM IS
SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED. THAT SAID, THE LATEST HREF, REFS, AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE MEMBERS INDICATE THAT A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TOWARD THE
PEE DEE, BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. BEHIND THE
FRONT, WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AS A NOTABLY DRIER AIR MASS
FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT.
VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY, SOLID MIXING COMBINED WITH DOWN SLOPING MAY AID IN
DROPPING DEW POINTS A BIT FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY MODELED
THURSDAY. LATEST REFS PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW A 50-70%
CHANCE OF SURFACE DEW POINTS DROPPING BELOW 35F THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL NEAR IF NOT FALL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES FOR MUCH OF THE FA.
IN ADDITION, A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT COULD BRING WIND GUSTS UP TO 15-20 MPH THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. LUCKILY, WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO NOT NEED A FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT, BUT A
LACK OF RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT, DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AND A VERY
DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN SHOULD BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND CONCERNS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER TOUGHING WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY,
MAINTAINING NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
ENSEMBLE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE THEN INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE
WORKING INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND WITH A STRENGTHENING
BERMUDA HIGH. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE POTENTIALLY BREAKING DOWN SOME DURING THE
MID WEEK. PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BRING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE STATE. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 90S BY
SATURDAY AND REMAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. EC EFI
VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 0.7-0.8 THROUGH TUESDAY, AIDING IN
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY INITIALLY,
BUT BY SUNDAY THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT AS THE FA FINDS
ITSELF MORE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
BERMUDA HIGH, INCREASING MOISTURE AND SEASONABLE INSTABILITY
COULD BRING SPOTTY DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE....
AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHTS SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. WHILE THEY HAVE
SPENT MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE VICINITY OF OGB, THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT OPERATIONS THERE AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY PASS
TO THE EAST. CEILINGS CONTINUE TO RISE AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ALL SITES NOW REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS, WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST. FOR TONIGHT, THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA WITH ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...7
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