746
FXUS62 KCAE 140006
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
806 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE A STRAY SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- 2. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY
BEHIND COLD FRONT.
- 3. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD TOUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. A
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY, WITH PWAT VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 1" ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA. FORCING AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
WEAK, AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE SYSTEM IS
SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED. THAT SAID, THE LATEST HREF, REFS, AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE MEMBERS INDICATE THAT A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TOWARD THE
PEE DEE, BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. BEHIND THE
FRONT, WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AS A NOTABLY DRIER AIR MASS
FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT.
VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY, SOLID MIXING COMBINED WITH DOWN SLOPING MAY AID IN
DROPPING DEW POINTS A BIT FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY MODELED
THURSDAY. LATEST REFS PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW A 50-70%
CHANCE OF SURFACE DEW POINTS DROPPING BELOW 35F THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL NEAR IF NOT FALL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES FOR MUCH OF THE FA.
IN ADDITION, A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT COULD BRING WIND GUSTS UP TO 15-20 MPH THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. LUCKILY, WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO NOT NEED A FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT, BUT A
LACK OF RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT, DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AND A VERY
DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN SHOULD BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND CONCERNS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER TOUGHING WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY,
MAINTAINING NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
ENSEMBLE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE THEN INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE
WORKING INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND WITH A STRENGTHENING
BERMUDA HIGH. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE POTENTIALLY BREAKING DOWN SOME DURING THE
MID WEEK. PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BRING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE STATE. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 90S BY
SATURDAY AND REMAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. EC EFI
VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 0.7-0.8 THROUGH TUESDAY, AIDING IN
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY INITIALLY,
BUT BY SUNDAY THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT AS THE FA FINDS
ITSELF MORE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
BERMUDA HIGH, INCREASING MOISTURE AND SEASONABLE INSTABILITY
COULD BRING SPOTTY DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO ISOLATED, IF ANY
SHOWERS DEVELOP AT ALL, SO IMPACTS TO THE TAF SITES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT,
WINDS TO PICK BACK UP FROM 7 TO 10 KTS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE. AS DEEP
MIXING DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS AFTER 16Z. DRY AIR AND MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY RESTRICTIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASES LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO EARLY MORNING FOG OR
STRATUS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...CJR
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